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Violent Crime Trends in Strafford, Missouri: A Decade of Low Rates Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Strafford, Missouri, a small city with a population of 6,160 in 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 42.86%, from 7 incidents to 4, while the population grew by 26.1% during the same period.
The murder rate in Strafford has remained consistently at zero throughout the recorded period from 2010 to 2022. This stability in the absence of murders, despite population growth, indicates a positive trend in public safety. The percentage of state murders attributed to Strafford has also remained at 0% throughout this time, suggesting that the city has maintained a relatively safe environment compared to other areas in Missouri.
Rape incidents in the city have fluctuated over the years. In 2010, there were no reported rapes, but by 2022, there was 1 reported case. This represents an increase from 0 to 0.16 incidents per 1,000 people. The percentage of state rapes attributed to Strafford increased from 0% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2022. While any increase in sexual violence is concerning, the low absolute numbers suggest that this remains a relatively rare occurrence in the community.
Robbery trends in Strafford have shown some variation. In 2010, there was 1 robbery reported, which represented 0.02% of state robberies. By 2022, the number of robberies had decreased to 0, with the percentage of state robberies falling to 0%. This decline in robberies, from 0.20 to 0 incidents per 1,000 people, indicates an improvement in this aspect of public safety over the years.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in Strafford. In 2010, there were 6 reported cases, which decreased to 3 cases by 2022. This represents a decline from 1.23 to 0.49 incidents per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to state-wide aggravated assaults decreased from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022, suggesting that Strafford has made progress in reducing this type of violent crime relative to the rest of Missouri.
Examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,484 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,872 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate decreased. However, this correlation is not strong enough to suggest a causal relationship.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), if current trends continue, we might expect to see the murder rate likely remaining at zero, rape incidents potentially fluctuating between 0 and 1 case per year, robbery cases likely staying very low, between 0 and 1 incident annually, and aggravated assaults potentially stabilizing around 3-4 cases per year.
In summary, Strafford has shown an overall improvement in violent crime rates over the past decade, particularly in reducing aggravated assaults and maintaining a zero murder rate. While there have been slight increases in certain categories like rape, the absolute numbers remain low. The city's contribution to state-wide violent crimes has generally decreased or remained stable across all categories. These trends, combined with the city's population growth, suggest that Strafford has been effective in maintaining public safety while experiencing demographic changes.
