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Violent Crime Trends in Pleasant Hill, Missouri: A Decade of Growth and Fluctuation
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Pleasant Hill, located in Missouri, has experienced notable shifts in violent crime patterns alongside population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city's population increased from 10,129 to 11,822, representing a growth of approximately 16.7%. During this period, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with significant variations from year to year.
The murder rate in Pleasant Hill has remained consistently low throughout the observed period. From 2010 to 2022, there were no reported cases of murder or nonnegligent manslaughter. This statistic is particularly noteworthy given the population growth, maintaining a rate of 0 per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to the state's murder rate has consistently been 0%, indicating a remarkably safe environment in this regard.
Rape incidents have shown some fluctuation over the years. The city reported no rapes in 2010, 2011, and 2014. However, there was an increase to 1 case per year in 2012, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018, representing 0.05% to 0.08% of the state's total. A significant spike occurred in 2021 with 6 reported cases (0.28% of the state's total), followed by a decrease to 1 case in 2022 (0.05%). The rate per 1,000 residents peaked in 2021 at approximately 0.51, dropping to 0.08 in 2022.
Robbery trends in the city have been relatively low and sporadic. No robberies were reported in most years, with exceptions in 2015 (1 case, 0.02% of state total) and 2017 (2 cases, 0.03% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents reached its highest at about 0.18 in 2017. The absence of robberies in most years, including 2022, suggests an overall low incidence of this crime type.
Aggravated assault has shown the most variability among violent crimes in the city. From 0 cases in 2010, it rose to 6 cases in 2014 (0.04% of state total), then dramatically increased to 26 cases in 2020 (0.14% of state total). However, it decreased to 5 cases in both 2021 and 2022 (0.03% of state total each year). The rate per 1,000 residents peaked in 2020 at approximately 2.28, dropping to about 0.42 in 2022.
There appears to be a moderate correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,255 per square mile in 2010 to 1,465 in 2022, there was a general upward trend in violent crimes, particularly noticeable in aggravated assaults. However, this correlation is not consistent across all years, suggesting other factors may influence crime rates.
The racial composition of Pleasant Hill has remained relatively stable, with the white population consistently representing around 90% of residents. There doesn't appear to be a strong correlation between racial distribution and violent crime trends given the limited variation in demographics.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that violent crime rates may stabilize or slightly decrease over the next five years (up to 2029). The city's consistent low murder rate is likely to continue, while rape and robbery incidents may remain low but fluctuate year to year. Aggravated assaults, having shown the most variability, might settle into a range of 5-10 cases annually, barring any significant socioeconomic changes.
In summary, Pleasant Hill has maintained relatively low violent crime rates despite population growth. The absence of murders, low robbery rates, and fluctuating but generally manageable levels of rape and aggravated assault paint a picture of a community that, while not immune to violent crime, has managed to keep it largely in check. The city's ability to maintain these trends in the face of population growth suggests effective law enforcement and community strategies, though continued vigilance will be crucial in preserving this positive trajectory.
