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Violent Crime Trends in Warsaw, Missouri: A Decade of Decreasing Aggravated Assaults
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Warsaw, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime count, with a peak of 19 incidents in 2014 and a low of 5 incidents in 2022. This represents a significant overall decrease of 16.67% in violent crime during this period. Concurrently, the population grew from 4,079 in 2010 to 4,598 in 2022, an increase of 12.72%.
Examining murder trends, Warsaw has maintained a consistent record of zero murders from 2010 to 2022. This stability is particularly noteworthy given the population growth, resulting in a consistent murder rate of 0 per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to the state's murder statistics has remained at 0% throughout the period, indicating a positive aspect of public safety in the community.
Rape incidents in the city have shown some variation over the years. The city reported no rapes from 2010 to 2015, but then saw incidents in 2016 (1 case), 2018 (2 cases), and 2019 (5 cases). The rape rate per 1,000 residents peaked in 2019 at 1.08. The city's contribution to the state's rape statistics also peaked in 2019 at 0.25%. However, by 2022, the number decreased to 1 incident, representing 0.05% of the state's total. This fluctuation suggests a need for continued vigilance in sexual assault prevention efforts.
Robbery trends in Warsaw have been minimal. The city reported 2 robberies in 2011 and 2017, representing 0.03% of the state's total in those years. All other years saw zero robberies. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 0.49 in 2011 and 0.44 in 2017. The low incidence of robberies, especially in recent years, indicates a relatively safe environment for businesses and residents.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents peaked at 19 in 2014, representing a rate of 4.38 per 1,000 residents and 0.13% of the state's total. Since then, there has been a general downward trend, with 4 incidents reported in 2022, a rate of 0.87 per 1,000 residents and 0.02% of the state's total. This significant decrease of 78.95% in aggravated assaults from 2014 to 2022 is a positive indicator of improving public safety.
A strong correlation appears to exist between the city's population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,636 per square mile in 2010 to 1,844 in 2022, there was an initial rise in violent crimes followed by a decline in recent years. This suggests that the city has adapted to manage crime effectively despite increased urbanization.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued decrease in overall violent crime rates if current trends persist. The model suggests that aggravated assaults may stabilize at around 3-5 incidents per year, while other violent crimes are expected to remain at very low levels or zero.
In summary, Warsaw has demonstrated a commendable improvement in its violent crime situation over the past decade. The absence of murders, low robbery rates, and significant reduction in aggravated assaults are particularly noteworthy. While there have been fluctuations in rape incidents, the overall trend shows a city that has become safer despite population growth. The correlation between population density and crime rates suggests that the city has implemented effective strategies to manage public safety as it has grown. These trends paint a picture of a community that has made substantial progress in creating a safer environment for its residents.
