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Violent Crime Trends in Burnsville, NC: A Steady Decline Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Burnsville, a town in North Carolina, has experienced notable changes in its violent crime landscape against a backdrop of population growth. From 2011 to 2017, the total number of violent crimes decreased significantly from 9 to 3, representing a 66.67% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 6,178 in 2011 to 5,669 in 2017, a slight decrease of 8.24%.
The murder rate in Burnsville has remained consistently at zero from 2011 to 2017, with no reported cases of murder or nonnegligent manslaughter. This stability in the absence of murders is particularly noteworthy given the population fluctuations during this period. The percentage of state crime for murder has also remained at 0%, indicating that Burnsville has not contributed to the state's murder statistics throughout the observed years.
Rape incidents in the city showed a declining trend. In 2011, there were 2 reported cases, which decreased to 1 in 2012, representing a 50% reduction. The rape rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.32 in 2011 to 0.17 in 2012. Notably, the percentage of state rape crimes attributed to Burnsville decreased from 0.17% in 2011 to 0.08% in 2012, suggesting an improvement in this area relative to the state's overall figures.
Robbery rates in the city remained low but stable. There was 1 reported robbery in both 2011 and 2012, with the rate per 1,000 people staying consistent at approximately 0.16. The city's contribution to the state's robbery statistics remained minimal at 0.01% in both years. However, by 2014 and 2017, no robberies were reported, indicating a positive trend in this category of violent crime.
Aggravated assault showed the most significant fluctuations among violent crimes in Burnsville. In 2011, there were 6 reported cases, which decreased to 5 in 2012, then further dropped to 1 in 2014, before rising slightly to 3 in 2017. The rate per 1,000 people for aggravated assault decreased from 0.97 in 2011 to 0.53 in 2017. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault statistics fluctuated, decreasing from 0.05% in 2011 to 0.01% in 2014, before rising slightly to 0.02% in 2017.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between violent crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 3,860 per square mile in 2011 to 3,994 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate showed a general decline. Additionally, there seems to be a weak correlation between the slight increase in the white population percentage (from 88% in 2013 to 90% in 2022) and the overall decrease in violent crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued low rate of violent crimes in Burnsville. The murder rate is expected to remain at zero, while rape and robbery incidents are likely to stay at very low levels, possibly with years of no reported cases. Aggravated assaults may continue to fluctuate but are predicted to remain below 5 cases per year.
In summary, Burnsville has demonstrated a positive trend in reducing violent crimes over the observed period, particularly in the categories of rape and robbery. The city's contribution to state crime statistics has remained consistently low across all categories of violent crime. These trends, coupled with the steady population growth and increasing density, suggest that Burnsville has been effective in maintaining public safety while accommodating demographic changes. The forecasted low crime rates for the next five years indicate a potentially stable and safe environment for residents in the foreseeable future.
