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Southern Pines' Violent Crime Trends: A Decade of Improvement Amid Demographic Shifts
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Southern Pines, a town in North Carolina, has experienced significant changes in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable decrease from 92 incidents in 2010 to 40 in 2022, representing a 56.5% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 17,080 to 20,334, an increase of 19%.
Murder rates in the city have shown volatility over the years. In 2010, there was 1 murder, which remained consistent in 2011 and 2012. A spike occurred in 2013 with 3 murders, followed by a period of fluctuation. The murder rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.059 in 2010 to 0.049 in 2022, despite population growth. The city's percentage of state murders varied, peaking at 1.34% in 2015 and dropping to 0.17% in 2022. This suggests that while the absolute number of murders has remained relatively low, the city's contribution to state-wide murders has decreased over time.
Rape data for the city is incomplete, with several years showing no available data. In 2019, there were 3 reported rapes, which increased to 12 in 2021, before decreasing to 5 in 2022. The rape rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.156 in 2019 to 0.246 in 2022. The city's percentage of state rapes increased from 0.18% in 2019 to 0.26% in 2022, indicating a growing contribution to state-wide rape statistics despite population growth.
Robbery incidents have shown a general declining trend. In 2010, there were 30 robberies, which decreased to 7 in 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people dropped significantly from 1.756 in 2010 to 0.344 in 2022. The city's percentage of state robberies also decreased from 0.4% in 2010 to 0.14% in 2022, suggesting a substantial improvement in robbery prevention relative to state-wide trends.
Aggravated assault cases have fluctuated but show an overall decrease. In 2010, there were 59 cases, which reduced to 27 in 2022. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people decreased from 3.454 in 2010 to 1.328 in 2022. The city's percentage of state aggravated assaults dropped from 0.44% in 2010 to 0.11% in 2022, indicating a significant reduction in the city's contribution to state-wide aggravated assault statistics.
There appears to be a correlation between the decrease in violent crimes and the increase in population density, which rose from 972 per square mile in 2010 to 1,157 in 2022. This suggests that as the city became more densely populated, it may have implemented more effective crime prevention strategies. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the decrease in violent crimes and the slight increase in the white population percentage, which rose from 73% in 2013 to 76% in 2022.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued overall decrease in violent crimes if current trends persist. Murder rates are likely to remain low but may fluctuate slightly. Rape incidents might stabilize or slightly decrease if recent prevention efforts are maintained. Robbery rates are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching even lower levels. Aggravated assaults may continue to decrease, albeit at a slower rate.
In summary, Southern Pines has made significant strides in reducing violent crime over the past decade, particularly in robberies and aggravated assaults. The town's growing population and increasing density have not led to an increase in violent crimes, suggesting effective law enforcement and community strategies. However, fluctuations in certain crime categories, especially murders and rapes, indicate areas that may require continued focus and resources to maintain the overall positive trend in public safety.
