Robbery trends have been more volatile. In 2010, there were 32 robberies (0.53 per 1,000 people), which decreased to 26 in 2022 (0.40 per 1,000 people). However, the city's percentage of state robberies increased from 0.43% in 2010 to 0.51% in 2022, indicating that while local rates improved, they did not keep pace with state-wide reductions.

Aggravated assaults have seen a significant increase. In 2010, there were 45 cases (0.75 per 1,000 people), which rose to 76 in 2022 (1.18 per 1,000 people), a 68.9% increase. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault figures remained relatively stable, from 0.33% in 2010 to 0.32% in 2022, suggesting this trend aligns with state-wide patterns.

A strong correlation exists between the increase in violent crimes and changes in racial demographics. As the white population percentage decreased from 72% in 2013 to 65% in 2022, there was a corresponding increase in violent crimes. Additionally, the rise in population density from 2,787 per square mile in 2010 to 2,982 in 2022 correlates with the overall increase in violent crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual increase in overall violent crime rates. Specifically, aggravated assaults are projected to rise by approximately 15%, while robbery rates may stabilize. Murder rates are expected to remain low but unpredictable due to their infrequent nature in the city.

In summary, Chapel Hill has experienced a complex evolution in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. While some categories like rape have shown improvement, others, particularly aggravated assaults, have seen significant increases. These trends, coupled with demographic shifts and increasing population density, present ongoing challenges for law enforcement and community safety initiatives in this growing college town.