Robbery rates in Bear Creek have remained consistently at zero for all recorded years (2010, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2021, and 2022). This consistency in the absence of robberies is a positive indicator for the city's safety, regardless of population changes. The robbery rate per 1,000 people has remained at 0, and the percentage of state crime for robbery has consistently been 0% across all recorded years.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in Bear Creek. In 2010, there were 7 cases, representing 0.12% of the state's total and a rate of 1.80 per 1,000 people. The number decreased to 4 cases in 2013 (0.04% of state total, 1.04 per 1,000 people), then increased to 8 cases in 2014 (0.08% of state total, 2.12 per 1,000 people). In 2016, it dropped significantly to 1 case (0.01% of state total, 0.30 per 1,000 people). There was an increase to 4 cases in 2021 (0.05% of state total, 1.14 per 1,000 people), followed by a decrease to 1 case in 2022 (0.01% of state total, 0.27 per 1,000 people). These fluctuations suggest that while aggravated assault occurs in the city, its frequency varies considerably from year to year.

When examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors, a notable relationship emerges with population density. As the population density decreased from 285 people per square mile in 2010 to 270 in 2022, there was a general downward trend in violent crimes, particularly in aggravated assaults. This suggests that lower population density may contribute to reduced violent crime rates in the city.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), it's likely that Bear Creek will continue to experience low levels of violent crime, with aggravated assault remaining the most common type. The city may see occasional spikes in specific crime categories, as it has in the past, but overall, the trend suggests that violent crime rates will remain relatively low and potentially continue to decrease slightly if the population density continues its downward trend.

In summary, Bear Creek has maintained relatively low violent crime rates over the years, with no reported murders or robberies, sporadic occurrences of rape, and fluctuating but generally low levels of aggravated assault. The city's decreasing population density appears to correlate with reduced violent crime rates, suggesting that this trend may continue to positively impact community safety in the coming years.