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Property Crime Trends in Brent, Alabama: A Decade of Resilience Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Brent, located in Alabama, has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates and population over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 6.6%, from 106 to 99 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased by 16.5%, from 5,005 to 4,178 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable decline over time. In 2010, there were 9 burglaries reported, which increased to a peak of 33 in 2011. However, by 2022, the number had decreased back to 9 incidents. When considering population changes, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents actually increased slightly from 1.80 in 2010 to 2.15 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries doubled from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.08% in 2022, indicating that while local rates have fluctuated, they have grown relative to the state average.
Larceny-theft trends show a decrease over the examined period. In 2010, there were 93 reported incidents, which dropped to 84 by 2022, representing a 9.7% decrease. However, when adjusted for population changes, the rate per 1,000 residents increased from 18.58 in 2010 to 20.11 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents rose from 0.13% to 0.18% during this period, suggesting that despite the local decrease, the city's share of state incidents has grown.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown variability but an overall increase. From 4 incidents in 2010, it rose to 6 in 2022, a 50% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.80 in 2010 to 1.44 in 2022. The city's percentage of state motor vehicle thefts also increased from 0.07% to 0.09%, indicating a growing share of this crime type relative to the state.
Arson data for the city is largely unavailable, with only one reported incident in 2011 and zero incidents in 2021 and 2022. This limited data makes it difficult to analyze trends or draw meaningful conclusions about arson in the city.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 568 per square mile in 2010 to 474 in 2022, property crime rates per capita actually increased, suggesting that lower density did not correspond with lower crime rates in this case. There appears to be a negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income rose from $26,483 in 2013 to $43,014 in 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased from 90 to 99, despite fluctuations in between.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, we might expect to see burglary rates remain relatively stable, larceny-theft incidents potentially decreasing slightly, and motor vehicle theft rates potentially continuing their gradual increase.
In summary, Brent has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape over the past decade. While overall property crime numbers have decreased slightly, when adjusted for population changes, the rates for certain types of crimes have actually increased. The city's share of state crime incidents has generally grown across categories, indicating that local trends are not necessarily mirroring state-wide patterns. These findings underscore the importance of considering multiple factors, including population changes and economic indicators, when assessing and addressing crime trends in Brent.
