Robbery trends in Cherokee have shown some variation. In 2014, there was 1 reported robbery, which represented 0.03% of the state's robbery cases. However, from 2018 to 2022, no robberies were reported, bringing the robbery rate per 1,000 people down from 0.25 in 2014 to 0 in subsequent years. This indicates a positive trend in reducing robbery incidents within the city.

Aggravated assault has been the most variable violent crime category in Cherokee. In 2014, there were 6 reported cases, representing 0.06% of the state's total. This number decreased to 1 case in 2018 (0.01% of state total), then rose sharply to 8 cases in 2021 (0.09% of state total), before dropping back to 1 case in 2022 (0.01% of state total). The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, from 1.53 in 2014 to 0.28 in 2018, peaking at 2.22 in 2021, and then decreasing to 0.26 in 2022. These fluctuations suggest that aggravated assault has been the primary driver of violent crime variability in the city.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a modest relationship between violent crime trends and racial distribution. The percentage of Black residents increased from 9% in 2014 to 11% in 2022, coinciding with some fluctuations in violent crime rates. However, it's important to note that this correlation does not imply causation, and other factors may be at play.

Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's challenging to forecast with certainty due to the significant variability in recent years. However, if we extrapolate from the overall downward trend from 2014 to 2022, we might cautiously predict that violent crime rates could stabilize at lower levels in the coming years. By 2029 (seven years from 2022, representing five years from now), the city might maintain its low violent crime numbers, potentially averaging 1-2 incidents per year, barring any significant changes in local conditions or interventions.

In summary, Cherokee has demonstrated a complex but generally improving violent crime landscape from 2014 to 2022. The most significant changes have been observed in aggravated assault rates, while murder, rape, and robbery have remained consistently low or non-existent. The city's ability to maintain zero incidents in several violent crime categories over multiple years is noteworthy, suggesting effective law enforcement strategies or strong community factors contributing to public safety.