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Property Crime Trends in Gadsden, Alabama: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Gadsden, Alabama, located in the northeastern part of the state, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 50.3%, from 2,620 to 1,302. This substantial reduction occurred alongside a population decline of 7.9%, from 38,147 in 2010 to 35,145 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a marked decline over the years. In 2010, there were 681 burglaries reported, which decreased to 152 in 2022, representing a 77.7% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 17.85 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 4.32 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 2.92% in 2010, peaking at 4.24% in 2021, and then dropping significantly to 1.34% in 2022. This trend suggests that while burglary has decreased overall, the city's contribution to state totals has varied considerably.
Larceny-theft incidents also decreased, though less dramatically than burglaries. In 2010, 1,797 larceny-thefts were reported, compared to 1,009 in 2022, a 43.9% decrease. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 47.11 in 2010 to 28.71 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, ranging from 2.46% in 2010 to 2.17% in 2022, with a peak of 5.17% in 2021. This indicates that while larceny-theft has decreased, the city's contribution to state totals has remained fairly consistent.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. In 2010, there were 142 reported cases, which increased to 454 in 2021 before dropping to 141 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated from 3.72 in 2010 to 12.76 in 2021, settling at 4.01 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 2.38% in 2010 to 7.67% in 2021 before decreasing to 2.11% in 2022. This volatility suggests that motor vehicle theft remains a concern, despite recent improvements.
Arson cases in the city have shown significant fluctuations. In 2010, 22 arsons were reported, representing 11.11% of state arsons. The number dropped to 13 in 2022, accounting for 2.44% of state arsons. The arson rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.58 in 2010 to 0.37 in 2022.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 1,019 per square mile in 2010 to 938 in 2022, property crimes also generally declined. This suggests a possible correlation between population density and crime rates. Additionally, the median income increased from $32,932 in 2013 to $40,404 in 2022, which coincided with the overall decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decline in overall property crimes, albeit at a slower rate. Burglaries are expected to stabilize around 140-150 cases annually, while larceny-theft may settle at approximately 950-1,000 incidents per year. Motor vehicle theft is projected to fluctuate between 130-150 cases annually. However, these predictions should be interpreted cautiously due to the volatile nature of crime statistics and potential unforeseen factors.
In summary, Gadsden has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. The city's contribution to state crime totals has fluctuated, with notable changes in recent years. The relationship between demographic factors such as population density and median income appears to have some correlation with crime trends. As the city continues to evolve, monitoring these trends will be crucial for maintaining and improving public safety.
