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Property Crime Trends in Billings, Montana: A Decade of Divergent Patterns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Billings, Montana, the largest city in the state, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside significant population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 1.34%, from 5,021 to 5,088 incidents. During this same period, the city's population grew by 14.81%, from 104,491 to 119,969 residents, indicating a complex relationship between population growth and crime rates.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a general decline over the years. In 2010, there were 848 burglaries, which decreased to 674 by 2022, representing a 20.52% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 8.12 in 2010 to 5.62 in 2022, a significant 30.79% decrease. Interestingly, despite this local decline, the city's share of state burglaries has fluctuated, starting at 45.69% in 2010, dropping to a low of 29.11% in 2015, but rising again to 43.12% by 2022. This suggests that while burglaries have decreased in the city, they may have decreased at a slower rate compared to the rest of the state.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, has remained relatively stable over the years. In 2010, there were 3,811 larceny thefts, which decreased slightly to 3,613 by 2022, a 5.20% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased more significantly from 36.47 in 2010 to 30.12 in 2022, a 17.41% drop, indicating that population growth outpaced the occurrence of larceny thefts. The city's share of state larceny thefts fluctuated between 24.84% and 33.18% over the period, ending at 29.04% in 2022, suggesting a relatively consistent proportion of state larceny thefts occurring in the city.
Motor vehicle theft has shown a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were 362 motor vehicle thefts, which increased to 801 by 2022, a substantial 121.27% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 3.46 in 2010 to 6.68 in 2022, a 93.06% increase. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts has also grown, from 45.65% in 2010 to 51.35% in 2022, indicating that this crime type has become increasingly concentrated in the urban area.
Arson cases in the city have fluctuated but show an overall increase. From 14 cases in 2010 to 28 in 2022, there was a 100% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.13 in 2010 to 0.23 in 2022, a 76.92% rise. The city's share of state arson cases has varied widely, from a low of 10.61% in 2013 to a high of 38.21% in 2021, settling at 31.46% in 2022. This volatility suggests that arson trends in the city may be influenced by specific incidents or local factors rather than broader statewide patterns.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between population density and motor vehicle theft rates. As the population density increased from 2,307 per square mile in 2010 to 2,649 in 2022, motor vehicle thefts rose correspondingly. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between rising median income and increased motor vehicle thefts, with median income growing from $49,247 in 2013 to $77,711 in 2022.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued increase in motor vehicle thefts, potentially reaching over 1,000 incidents annually. Burglary rates are expected to stabilize around 600-650 cases per year. Larceny theft is projected to remain relatively constant, hovering around 3,600-3,700 incidents annually. Arson cases are harder to predict due to their volatility but may continue to fluctuate between 20-30 cases per year.
In summary, Billings has experienced divergent trends in property crime over the past decade. While burglary and larceny theft rates have decreased relative to population growth, motor vehicle theft and arson have risen significantly. The city's share of state property crimes remains substantial across all categories, highlighting its role as a major urban center in Montana. These trends, coupled with the city's growing population and increasing median income, suggest a complex interplay between demographic changes and crime patterns that will likely continue to shape the city's public safety landscape in the coming years.
