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Property Crime Trends in Conrad, Montana: A Study of Fluctuations and Economic Correlations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Conrad, located in Montana, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the years from 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable decrease from 37 incidents in 2010 to 35 in 2022, representing a 5.4% reduction. During this same period, the population grew slightly from 2,623 in 2010 to 2,638 in 2022, a 0.6% increase.
The burglary rate in the city has shown significant volatility over the years. In 2010, there were 5 burglaries, which decreased to zero in 2013 and 2016, but then spiked to 7 in 2017 and 2020. By 2022, the number settled at 5 again. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated from 1.91 in 2010 to 1.90 in 2022, showing relative stability despite the year-to-year variations. The city's share of state burglaries has also varied, peaking at 0.4% in 2020 and settling at 0.32% in 2022, indicating an increased proportion of state burglaries occurring in the city in recent years.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, has shown a downward trend. From 30 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 53 in 2014 before declining to 27 in 2022, a 10% decrease over the 12-year period. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 11.44 in 2010 to 10.23 in 2022, suggesting a slight improvement in theft occurrences relative to population growth. The city's share of state larceny-thefts has remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.11% and 0.39% over the years, with 2022 showing 0.22% of state larcenies occurring in the city.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown a slight upward trend. From 2 incidents in 2010, it increased to 3 in 2022, a 50% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.76 in 2010 to 1.14 in 2022, indicating an increase in motor vehicle thefts relative to population growth. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts has fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.52% in 2014 and settling at 0.19% in 2022, suggesting that while local incidents have increased, they represent a smaller proportion of state totals in recent years.
Arson incidents in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. There were no reported arsons in most years, with single incidents reported in 2011, 2017, and 2020. This irregularity makes it difficult to establish a clear trend or calculate meaningful rates per 1,000 residents. The city's share of state arsons in years with incidents ranged from 1.01% to 1.22%, indicating that when arsons did occur, they represented a significant portion of state totals.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $40,551 in 2013 to $48,922 in 2022, overall property crime rates showed a general downward trend, suggesting that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a slight downward trend in overall property crimes. Burglaries are expected to stabilize around 4-5 incidents annually, larceny-thefts may continue to decrease to approximately 20-25 incidents per year, and motor vehicle thefts could remain steady at 2-3 incidents annually. Arson is projected to remain a rare occurrence with 0-1 incidents per year.
In summary, Conrad has experienced a modest overall decrease in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, despite slight population growth. The most significant improvements have been in larceny-theft rates, while burglaries and motor vehicle thefts have shown more variability. The city's share of state property crimes has remained relatively small but fluctuating, indicating that local crime trends don't always mirror state-wide patterns. The inverse correlation between rising median incomes and declining property crime rates suggests that economic factors may play a role in shaping the city's crime landscape.
