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Violent Crime Trends in Hardin, Montana: A Small City's Unique Profile
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Hardin, located in Montana, presents an interesting case study for violent crime analysis. In 2022, the city reported a total of 11 violent crimes. This small urban center, with a population of 4,478 in 2022, has experienced a slight population decline of 1.5% since 2020, providing a unique backdrop for examining crime trends.
The murder rate in Hardin has remained consistently at zero throughout the available data period. This stability is notable, especially considering the population fluctuations. With no murders reported, the city's contribution to the state's murder statistics is 0%, indicating a positive aspect of public safety in this small community.
Rape incidents in Hardin also show a consistent pattern of zero reported cases. This trend holds steady despite population changes, maintaining a 0% contribution to the state's rape statistics. While this data is encouraging, it's important to consider potential underreporting factors in smaller communities.
Robbery trends in Hardin show a slight increase, with 2 cases reported in 2022. This translates to a rate of 0.45 robberies per 1,000 residents, a notable figure for a small city. The city's contribution to the state's robbery statistics is 0.86%, which is significant given its size. This uptick in robberies could be a point of concern for local law enforcement and community leaders.
Aggravated assault is the most prevalent violent crime in Hardin, with 9 cases reported in 2022. This equates to 2.01 assaults per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault statistics is 0.38%, which is proportionally lower than its robbery contribution. The relatively high number of aggravated assaults compared to other violent crimes suggests this as a primary area for crime prevention efforts.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the city's changing demographic composition and violent crime trends. The Native American population has remained relatively stable at around 32-37% from 2013 to 2022, while the white population has decreased from 56% to 50% over the same period. Concurrently, the Hispanic population has increased from 3% to 13%. These demographic shifts coincide with the slight increase in violent crimes, particularly robberies and aggravated assaults.
Applying predictive models based on current trends, it's projected that by 2029, Hardin may see a slight increase in violent crimes, potentially reaching 13-15 incidents annually. This forecast assumes continuation of current demographic and socioeconomic trends.
In summary, Hardin's violent crime landscape is characterized by zero murders and rapes, a small but notable number of robberies, and a more significant presence of aggravated assaults. The city's changing demographic composition appears to correlate with these crime trends. While the overall violent crime rate remains relatively low for an urban area, the increase in robberies and the consistent presence of aggravated assaults warrant attention from local authorities and community leaders in Hardin.
