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Property Crime Trends in Sidney, Montana: A Decade of Fluctuations and Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Sidney, Montana, a city of 7,569 residents as of 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 1.64%, from 61 to 62 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 23.66%, from 6,121 to 7,569 residents, indicating a disproportionate relationship between population growth and crime rates.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant volatility. In 2010, there were 4 burglaries, which peaked at 35 in 2016 before declining to 14 in 2022. The burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.65 in 2010 to 1.85 in 2022, a 184.62% rise. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, rising from 0.22% in 2010 to a high of 1.57% in 2016, before settling at 0.90% in 2022. This suggests that while the absolute number of burglaries has increased, the city's contribution to state-wide burglaries has also grown significantly.
Larceny theft incidents have shown a slight decline over the years. In 2010, there were 48 cases, which peaked at 100 in both 2012 and 2016, before decreasing to 46 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 7.84 in 2010 to 6.08 in 2022, a 22.45% decrease. The city's percentage of state larceny thefts decreased from 0.42% in 2010 to 0.37% in 2022, indicating that larceny theft has become less prevalent in the city compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft has shown a decreasing trend. In 2010, there were 9 cases, which peaked at 18 in 2016, before dropping to 2 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.47 in 2010 to 0.26 in 2022, a substantial 82.31% reduction. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts declined from 1.13% in 2010 to 0.13% in 2022, suggesting a significant improvement in this area relative to state trends.
Arson cases have remained relatively low but fluctuating. The city reported no arsons in 2010, 2012, 2014, 2020, and 2022. The highest number was 4 cases in 2016. The rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.53 in 2016 and was 0 in several years, including 2022. The city's percentage of state arsons varied widely, from 0% in multiple years to a high of 4.35% in 2015, indicating sporadic occurrences rather than a consistent trend.
A strong correlation exists between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 1,861 per square mile in 2010 to 2,302 in 2022, property crime rates initially rose but then stabilized, suggesting that the city has adapted to manage crime despite increasing density.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, we anticipate a potential slight decrease in overall property crime rates over the next five years (up to 2029). Burglary rates are expected to stabilize around 1.5 per 1,000 residents, while larceny theft may continue its gradual decline to approximately 5.5 per 1,000 residents. Motor vehicle theft is projected to remain low, possibly fluctuating between 0.2 and 0.5 per 1,000 residents. Arson cases are expected to remain sporadic and low in number.
In conclusion, Sidney has shown resilience in managing property crime rates despite significant population growth. The city has made notable progress in reducing motor vehicle thefts and maintaining low levels of arson. However, burglary rates remain a concern and may require focused attention from law enforcement. The overall trend suggests that Sidney is moving towards a more stable and potentially improving property crime situation, aligning closer with state averages in most categories.
