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Violent Crime Trends in Steele, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuation Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Steele, Missouri, a small urban area, has experienced significant fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of declining population. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 33.3%, from 21 to 14 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased by 18.7%, from 3,297 to 2,682 residents.
The murder rate in Steele has shown volatility over the years. In 2010, there were 2 murders, representing 0.59% of the state's total. The rate then dropped to zero for several years before rising again to 1 murder in both 2018 and 2020, accounting for 0.21% and 0.16% of the state's murders respectively. By 2021, the murder rate returned to zero. When adjusted for population, the murder rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.61 in 2010, dropped to zero, then rose to 0.32 per 1,000 in 2018 and 0.35 per 1,000 in 2020. This fluctuation suggests an inconsistent pattern in serious violent crime within the community.
Rape incidents have shown a slight upward trend. There were no reported rapes in 2010, but by 2015, the number increased to 3, representing 0.16% of the state's total. In 2021, there was 1 reported rape, accounting for 0.05% of the state's cases. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0 in 2010 to 0.92 in 2015, then decreased to 0.37 per 1,000 in 2021. This trend indicates a growing concern for sexual violence in the community, despite the recent decrease.
Robbery rates have fluctuated over the years. In 2010, there was 1 robbery, representing 0.02% of the state's total. This number peaked at 7 in 2013 and 2016, accounting for 0.14% and 0.12% of the state's robberies respectively. By 2021, the number decreased to 4 robberies, or 0.13% of the state's total. When adjusted for population, the rate increased from 0.30 per 1,000 in 2010 to 2.21 per 1,000 in 2013, before settling at 1.49 per 1,000 in 2021. This trend suggests an overall increase in robbery risk over time.
Aggravated assault has shown the most significant changes. In 2010, there were 18 cases, representing 0.13% of the state's total. This number peaked at 42 in both 2012 and 2015, accounting for 0.28% and 0.26% of the state's cases respectively. By 2021, the number had decreased to 9 cases, or 0.05% of the state's total. When adjusted for population, the rate increased from 5.46 per 1,000 in 2010 to 12.87 per 1,000 in 2015, before decreasing to 3.36 per 1,000 in 2021. This trend indicates a significant improvement in recent years.
There appears to be a correlation between the decline in population density and the overall decrease in violent crimes. As the population density dropped from 1,524 per square mile in 2010 to 1,240 per square mile in 2021, the total number of violent crimes also decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a weak correlation between the increase in median rent (from $533 in 2013 to $625 in 2021) and the decrease in violent crimes, possibly suggesting improved living conditions.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued overall decrease in violent crimes if current population trends persist. However, individual categories like robbery and rape may see slight increases due to their recent upward trends.
In conclusion, Steele has shown a general improvement in violent crime rates over the past decade, particularly in aggravated assaults. However, the increases in rape and robbery rates warrant attention. The city's declining population appears to be a significant factor in these trends, and continued monitoring of demographic changes will be crucial for understanding future crime patterns.
