Motor vehicle theft in Monroe City has remained relatively low but variable. From 4 cases in 2010, it dropped to zero in 2016 and 2017, before rising to 3 cases in 2021. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated from 1.31 in 2010 to 0.87 in 2021. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained low, ranging from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2021.

Arson incidents have been rare in the city, with only one reported case in 2018, representing 0.15% of state arsons that year. This isolated incident translates to a rate of 0.33 per 1,000 residents for 2018.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 1,011 per square mile in 2010 to 1,142 in 2021, the overall property crime rate decreased. Additionally, there's a potential correlation between the slight decrease in the percentage of owner-occupied housing (from 66% in 2013 to 56% in 2022) and the fluctuations in property crime rates, particularly burglary.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential stabilization or slight increase in property crime rates. This projection is based on the recent uptick observed in 2021 compared to 2019, combined with the continuing population growth and changes in housing ownership patterns.

In summary, Monroe City has experienced an overall decrease in property crimes over the past decade, with notable fluctuations in specific categories. The city's ability to maintain lower crime rates while experiencing population growth is commendable. However, the recent slight increases in some crime categories and the changing demographics suggest a need for continued vigilance and adaptive crime prevention strategies to maintain and improve upon these positive trends in the coming years.