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Violent Crime Trends in Rock Hill, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuating Incidents
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Rock Hill, located in Missouri, is a small urban area with a population of 4,576 as of 2022. This analysis examines the violent crime trends in the city over the past decade, revealing significant fluctuations in both crime rates and population.
From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes in the city varied considerably, ranging from a low of 1 incident in 2017 and 2020 to a high of 12 incidents in 2014. Over this period, the population decreased by 8.4%, from 4,997 in 2010 to 4,576 in 2022. Despite this population decline, the overall violent crime rate did not show a consistent trend, indicating that factors other than population change may be influencing crime rates in the city.
Examining specific violent crime categories, murder rates in Rock Hill have remained exceptionally low. Only one murder was reported in 2019, representing 0.22% of the state's total murders that year. This translates to a rate of 0.22 murders per 1,000 residents in 2019. In all other years from 2010 to 2022, no murders were reported, suggesting that homicide is an extremely rare occurrence in this community.
Rape incidents in the city have been similarly infrequent. Only one rape was reported in 2015, accounting for 0.05% of the state's total rapes that year. This equates to a rate of 0.21 rapes per 1,000 residents in 2015. No other rapes were reported between 2010 and 2022, indicating that sexual violence, as measured by reported rapes, is not a prevalent issue in the community.
Robbery trends show more variability. The highest number of robberies (3) occurred in both 2010 and 2016, representing 0.05% of the state's total robberies in each of those years. This translates to rates of 0.60 and 0.61 robberies per 1,000 residents in 2010 and 2016, respectively. The city experienced years with no reported robberies (2013, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2021), suggesting fluctuating patterns rather than a consistent trend.
Aggravated assault has been the most common form of violent crime in the city. The highest number of aggravated assaults (11) occurred in 2014, accounting for 0.08% of the state's total. This represents a rate of 2.22 aggravated assaults per 1,000 residents in 2014. The number of aggravated assaults has varied over the years, with the most recent data showing 7 incidents in 2022, or 1.53 per 1,000 residents.
When examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors, a notable relationship emerges with the city's racial composition. The percentage of white residents decreased from 72% in 2015 to 63% in 2022, while the Hispanic population increased from 2% to 8% during the same period. This demographic shift coincides with some fluctuations in violent crime rates, though a direct causal relationship cannot be established without further study.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential slight increase in overall violent crime incidents. Based on historical patterns, the model predicts that the city may experience between 8 to 10 violent crimes annually by 2029, with aggravated assaults likely remaining the most common type of violent offense.
In summary, Rock Hill has maintained relatively low violent crime rates over the past decade, with significant year-to-year variations. The most notable trends include the rarity of murders and rapes, fluctuating robbery incidents, and aggravated assault as the predominant form of violent crime. While demographic changes have occurred concurrently with some crime rate fluctuations, the overall violent crime situation in the city remains manageable, with rates generally lower than many urban areas of similar size.
