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Property Crime Trends in Sarcoxie, Missouri: A Decade of Resilience Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Sarcoxie, located in Missouri, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates alongside significant population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of property crimes decreased from 44 to 36, representing an 18.18% reduction. During the same period, the population grew from 2,766 to 3,603, a substantial increase of 30.26%.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a general decline over time. In 2010, there were 9 burglaries reported, which decreased to 7 in 2020. This represents a 22.22% reduction in burglary incidents. When considering the population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 3.25 in 2010 to 1.94 in 2020, a 40.31% reduction. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.06% in 2019 before settling at 0.04% in 2020. This downward trend in burglaries, despite population growth, suggests improved security measures or increased community vigilance.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown more variability. In 2010, there were 32 reported cases, which decreased to 21 in 2020, a 34.38% reduction. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 people dropped from 11.57 in 2010 to 5.83 in 2020, a significant 49.61% decrease. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.02% and 0.05% over the years. This overall downward trend in larceny-theft, especially when considering the population increase, indicates potentially successful crime prevention strategies.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been less consistent. In 2010, there were 3 reported cases, which increased to 8 in 2020, a 166.67% increase. However, when adjusted for population growth, the rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.08 in 2010 to 2.22 in 2020, a 105.56% increase. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2020. This upward trend in motor vehicle thefts, both in absolute numbers and relative to population, suggests a need for targeted prevention efforts in this area.
Arson cases have been sporadic, with 2 reported in 2010, none in intervening years, and then 2 again in 2020. The arson rate per 1,000 people decreased slightly from 0.72 in 2010 to 0.55 in 2020, a 23.61% reduction. The city's contribution to state arson cases increased from 0.19% in 2010 to 0.26% in 2020. While the absolute numbers are low, the persistence of arson cases and the increased share of state incidents warrant attention.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $36,439 in 2013 to $53,994.5 in 2020, total property crimes decreased from 49 to 36. The percentage of owner-occupied housing also showed a slight positive correlation with reduced property crime, increasing from 71% in 2013 to 77% in 2020.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029, Sarcoxie may see a continued decrease in overall property crime rates, potentially reaching around 30 incidents annually. Burglary and larceny-theft are likely to maintain their downward trends, while motor vehicle theft may continue to pose challenges unless targeted interventions are implemented.
In summary, Sarcoxie has demonstrated resilience in managing property crime rates despite significant population growth. The most notable improvements have been in burglary and larceny-theft reductions, while motor vehicle theft has emerged as an area requiring increased focus. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes and home ownership rates, suggest a generally positive trajectory for the city's safety and economic well-being. However, ongoing vigilance and adaptive strategies will be crucial to maintain and improve upon these gains in the coming years.
