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Violent Crime Trends in West Plains, Missouri: A Study of Fluctuating Patterns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
West Plains, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime incidents, with the number varying from a low of 33 in 2013 to a high of 76 in 2021. Over this period, the population grew modestly from 18,217 in 2010 to 18,741 in 2022, representing a 2.9% increase.
Murder rates in the city have shown significant variability. The city recorded zero murders in several years, including 2010, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2018, 2019, and 2021. However, there were spikes in 2011 and 2020, with 2 and 3 murders respectively. The murder rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2020 at 0.16, while the percentage of state murders reached its highest at 0.69% in 2011. These fluctuations suggest that while murder is not a consistent problem, the city occasionally experiences significant incidents that dramatically affect its statistics.
Rape incidents have shown a concerning upward trend. The number of reported rapes increased from 2 in 2010 to 9 in 2022, with a peak of 19 cases in 2021. The rape rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.11 in 2010 to 0.48 in 2022, with a high of 1.01 in 2021. The city's share of state rape cases also increased, from 0.19% in 2010 to 0.43% in 2022, peaking at 0.9% in 2021. This trend indicates a growing concern for sexual violence in the community.
Robbery incidents have remained relatively low and stable. The number of robberies fluctuated between 1 and 7 cases annually, with 1 case reported in 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people has stayed below 0.4 throughout the period. The city's contribution to state robbery cases has been minimal, never exceeding 0.12% and dropping to 0.03% in 2022. This suggests that robbery is not a major concern for the city compared to other violent crimes.
Aggravated assault has shown the most significant fluctuations among violent crimes. The number of cases ranged from a low of 20 in 2016 to a high of 56 in 2021. The rate per 1,000 people varied accordingly, from 1.06 in 2016 to 2.99 in 2021. The city's share of state aggravated assaults has also fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.36% in 2011 and a low of 0.12% in 2016 and 2017. In 2022, there were 40 cases, representing 0.23% of state incidents. These variations suggest that aggravated assault remains a persistent issue with periodic spikes.
There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,369 per square mile in 2010 to 1,408 in 2022, there was a general upward trend in violent crime incidents, particularly evident in the rape and aggravated assault categories. The racial composition of the city, with a consistently high white population (94-96% throughout the period), does not show a strong correlation with crime trends due to its stability.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029, West Plains may see a slight increase in overall violent crime rates. Rape incidents are likely to continue their upward trend, potentially reaching 12-15 cases annually. Aggravated assaults may stabilize around 45-50 cases per year. Murder rates are expected to remain low but unpredictable, while robbery rates are likely to stay minimal.
In conclusion, West Plains faces challenges primarily in addressing rape and aggravated assault incidents. The fluctuating nature of violent crimes, particularly the spikes observed in certain years, suggests a need for targeted interventions and community-based prevention strategies. While the overall crime rate remains relatively low for a city of its size, the increasing trends in specific categories warrant attention from local law enforcement and policymakers to ensure the safety and well-being of its residents.
