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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Exeter, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the years, this small community has experienced fluctuations in its property crime rates, which warrant a closer examination in the context of its population changes. From 2010 to 2022, the city's population saw an overall decrease of 12.5%, dropping from 1,629 to 1,425 residents. During this period, reported property crimes were sporadic, with some years showing no incidents and others recording a handful of cases.
Burglary trends in the city have been minimal and inconsistent. In 2013, there were 2 reported burglaries, which equated to a rate of 1.5 per 1,000 residents. This increased slightly to 3 burglaries in 2014, raising the rate to 2.3 per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to state burglary statistics was negligible, at 0.01% in both years. After 2014, no burglaries were reported in the available data, suggesting a potential improvement in this area of property crime.
Larceny-theft showed a similar pattern of low occurrences. In 2013, 6 cases were reported, translating to a rate of 4.5 per 1,000 residents. This decreased to 3 cases in 2014 (2.3 per 1,000 residents) and further dropped to 2 cases in 2018 (1.7 per 1,000 residents). The city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics remained at 0.01% or less throughout this period. The declining trend in larceny-theft cases, despite population fluctuations, indicates a possible improvement in community safety or reporting practices.
Motor vehicle theft was rarely reported in Exeter. Only one incident was recorded in 2014 and another in 2018, representing rates of 0.77 and 0.85 per 1,000 residents, respectively. These isolated incidents contributed to 0.01% of the state's motor vehicle theft statistics in their respective years. The infrequency of these crimes suggests that motor vehicle theft is not a significant concern for the community.
Arson cases were not reported in the available data for Exeter. This absence of arson incidents over the years indicates that it is not a prevalent issue in the community.
When examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors, a notable relationship emerges with median income. As the median income increased from $34,096 in 2013 to $43,499 in 2019, there was a corresponding decrease in reported property crimes. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime rates in the city.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) is challenging due to the limited and sporadic nature of the data. However, based on the overall declining trend in reported incidents and the improving economic conditions, it's reasonable to project that property crime rates in Exeter will likely remain low, with potential fluctuations between 0 to 5 incidents per year, assuming no significant changes in local conditions or reporting practices.
In summary, Exeter has demonstrated a generally positive trend in property crime rates over the observed period. The sporadic nature of reported incidents, coupled with an overall decline in population, suggests that property crime is not a major concern for this small Missouri community. The correlation between rising median income and decreasing crime rates is particularly noteworthy, potentially indicating that continued economic growth could further contribute to maintaining low property crime levels in the future.