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Violent Crime Trends in Paris, Arkansas: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Small City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Paris, Arkansas, a small city with a population of 3,921 in 2022, has experienced significant fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased by 82.35%, from 17 to 31 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased by 7.15%, from 4,223 to 3,921 residents, creating a complex dynamic between crime rates and population trends.
The murder rate in the city has shown notable volatility. From 2010 to 2016, there were no reported murders. However, in 2017, the city recorded its first murder case, representing 0.52% of the state's total murders that year. This translates to a rate of 0.26 murders per 1,000 people. In 2021 and 2022, the city again reported one murder each year, accounting for 0.44% and 0.4% of the state's murders respectively. The murder rate per 1,000 people increased slightly to 0.25 in 2022 due to the declining population. This sporadic occurrence of murders suggests a low but persistent risk of such serious crimes in the community.
Rape incidents have shown a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there was one reported rape, which increased to seven cases by 2022. This represents a 600% increase over the period. The rape rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.24 in 2010 to 1.78 in 2022. Moreover, the city's contribution to the state's total rape cases increased from 0.11% in 2010 to 0.44% in 2022. This significant increase in both absolute numbers and the proportion of state totals indicates a growing concern for sexual violence in the community.
Robbery trends have been inconsistent but generally low. The city reported two robberies in 2010, representing 0.09% of the state's total. However, by 2022, there were no reported robberies. The robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.47 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. This suggests an improvement in property-related violent crimes, potentially due to increased security measures or community policing efforts.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. In 2010, there were 14 cases, which increased to 23 in 2022, a 64.29% rise. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 3.32 in 2010 to 5.86 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's total aggravated assaults fluctuated, peaking at 0.49% in 2013 before settling at 0.2% in 2022. This persistent high level of aggravated assaults suggests ongoing issues with violent confrontations in the community.
There appears to be a correlation between the increase in violent crimes and changes in racial demographics. From 2013 to 2022, the white population percentage decreased from 93% to 91%, while the Asian population increased from 1% to 5%. This period coincides with the overall increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults and rapes. However, it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation, and other socioeconomic factors may be at play.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may see a continued increase in violent crimes if current trends persist. The total number of violent crimes could potentially reach 40-45 incidents per year, with aggravated assaults and rapes likely to show the most significant increases.
In summary, Paris, Arkansas has faced a complex evolution of violent crime over the past decade. While robberies have decreased, the city has seen concerning increases in rapes and aggravated assaults. The sporadic occurrence of murders, though low in number, adds to the overall violent crime picture. These trends, coupled with the declining population, suggest a need for targeted interventions and community-based strategies to address the rising violent crime rates and ensure the safety and well-being of the city's residents.
