Robbery trends in the city show a consistent absence of incidents from 2012 to 2022. Throughout this period, there were no reported robberies, resulting in a robbery rate of 0 per 1,000 people and 0% of state robbery crimes. This consistent lack of robberies contributes to the overall perception of safety within the community, particularly in terms of property-related violent crimes.

Aggravated assault has been the most variable violent crime in the city. The highest number of aggravated assaults was recorded in 2013 with 3 incidents, representing a rate of 1.55 per 1,000 people and 0.05% of state aggravated assaults. The years 2012, 2014, and 2015 saw 1 or 2 incidents each. However, from 2016 to 2021, there were no reported aggravated assaults, indicating a period of improvement. In 2022, there was 1 reported case, resulting in a rate of 0.61 per 1,000 people and 0.01% of state aggravated assaults.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 264 per square mile in 2012 to 225 per square mile in 2022, the overall violent crime rate fluctuated but generally trended downward. The median rent increased from $505 in 2013 to $837 in 2022, but this does not show a strong correlation with violent crime trends. The racial composition of the city remained predominantly white throughout the period, with a slight decrease from 99% in 2014 to 91% in 2022, but this change does not appear to correlate strongly with violent crime patterns.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate that the city will likely maintain its low violent crime rates. The sporadic nature of violent crimes in recent years suggests that incidents may occur occasionally but are not expected to increase significantly. Given the historical data, we might predict an average of 0-1 violent crimes per year, with aggravated assault being the most likely type of incident.

In summary, Greers Ferry has maintained a relatively low violent crime rate over the past decade, with occasional spikes in aggravated assaults being the primary concern. The absence of murders and robberies, along with the rarity of rape incidents, paints a picture of a generally safe community. The slight downward trend in population, coupled with the sporadic nature of violent crimes, suggests that the city is likely to continue experiencing low levels of violent crime in the near future, barring any significant changes in local socioeconomic conditions or law enforcement strategies.