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Violent Crime Trends in Berryville, Arkansas: A Decade of Population Growth and Crime Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Berryville, located in Arkansas, has experienced notable changes in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a peak of 25 incidents in 2016 and 2019, and a low of 7 in 2013. Overall, violent crimes decreased by 0% from 12 in 2010 to 12 in 2022. During this same period, the population grew significantly from 6,557 in 2010 to 8,209 in 2022, representing a 25.2% increase.
Murder rates in the city have remained relatively low, with only sporadic occurrences. There were no murders reported in most years, with exceptions in 2011 (1 case, 0.87% of state total), 2016 (2 cases, 1.27% of state total), and 2017 (1 case, 0.52% of state total). The murder rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2016 at 0.27 and dropped to zero in subsequent years. This suggests that while murder is not a persistent issue, isolated incidents can significantly impact the city's crime statistics due to its small population.
Rape incidents have shown more variability over the years. The number of reported rapes increased from 0 in 2010 to 4 in 2022, with a peak of 12 cases in 2016 and 2017. The rape rate per 1,000 people rose from 0 in 2010 to 0.49 in 2022, with a high of 1.63 per 1,000 in 2017. The city's contribution to state rape statistics fluctuated, reaching 0.97% in 2012 and declining to 0.25% by 2022. This trend indicates a growing concern that needs attention, despite some recent improvements.
Robbery trends have remained relatively stable and low. The city reported 2 robberies in 2010, with numbers fluctuating between 0 and 4 cases annually. The robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased slightly from 0.31 in 2010 to 0.12 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies has been minimal, peaking at 0.29% in 2019. This suggests that robbery is not a major concern for the community, with rates generally lower than other violent crimes.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. Cases increased from 10 in 2010 to 13 in 2012, then fluctuated before settling at 7 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.52 in 2010 to 0.85 in 2022, indicating an improvement relative to population growth. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases has remained low, peaking at 0.18% in 2012 and dropping to 0.06% by 2022. This trend suggests a general improvement in aggravated assault rates over time.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak positive relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,066 per square mile in 2010 to 1,334 in 2022, violent crime rates showed some fluctuation but no strong consistent trend. Median rent and race distribution do not show strong correlations with violent crime trends based on the available data.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, we anticipate a slight decrease in overall violent crime rates over the next five years (up to 2029). Based on the historical data and current trends, we project that the total number of violent crimes may stabilize around 10-15 incidents annually by 2029, with potential fluctuations due to the city's small size.
In summary, Berryville has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime patterns against the backdrop of significant population growth. While murder and robbery rates have remained generally low, rape incidents have shown concerning increases at times. Aggravated assault, though decreasing in rate per capita, remains the most common violent crime. The city's contribution to state crime statistics has generally been minimal across all categories. Moving forward, continued vigilance and targeted prevention strategies will be crucial in maintaining and improving public safety in Berryville.
