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Violent Crime Trends in Palmyra, Missouri: A Small City's Remarkable Safety Record
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Palmyra, Missouri, a small urban area with a population of 4,470 as of 2022, has experienced fluctuations in violent crime rates while maintaining a relatively stable population over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes varied between 0 and 5 incidents per year, with an overall decrease of 75% from 4 incidents in 2010 to 1 incident in 2022. During this same period, the population grew slightly by 1.75%, from 4,393 in 2010 to 4,470 in 2022.
Throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022, Palmyra reported only one murder, which occurred in 2021. This single incident resulted in a rate of 0.22 murders per 1,000 people for that year and represented 0.21% of the state's total murders. Given the rarity of this crime in the city, it's challenging to establish a meaningful trend or correlation with population changes.
Rape incidents in the city were similarly infrequent, with only two reported cases in 2021. This resulted in a rate of 0.45 rapes per 1,000 people for that year and accounted for 0.09% of the state's total rapes. As with murder, the sporadic nature of these incidents makes it difficult to identify clear trends or correlations with population changes.
Robbery reports in Palmyra were consistently zero throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This absence of robbery incidents suggests that this particular form of violent crime is not a significant concern for the city, regardless of population changes or other factors.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city, though still occurring at low rates. The number of aggravated assaults fluctuated between 0 and 5 incidents per year. In 2010, there were 4 aggravated assaults (0.91 per 1,000 people), which decreased to 1 incident in 2022 (0.22 per 1,000 people). This represents a 75% decrease in the aggravated assault rate over the 12-year period. The percentage of state aggravated assaults attributable to Palmyra remained consistently low, ranging from 0% to 0.03% throughout the period.
When examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As population density increased from 1,415 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,440 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate tended to decrease. However, this correlation is not strong enough to suggest a causal relationship.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) is challenging due to the low and inconsistent number of incidents. However, based on the overall decreasing trend in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults, it's reasonable to project that the city may continue to experience low levels of violent crime, potentially averaging 1-2 incidents per year, barring any significant changes in socioeconomic factors or law enforcement strategies.
In summary, Palmyra has maintained a relatively low and decreasing rate of violent crime over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the most common form of violent crime. The city's small size and stable population contribute to the sporadic nature of violent crime incidents, making it challenging to identify strong correlations with demographic or economic factors. Despite these limitations, the overall trend suggests that Palmyra remains a relatively safe community with infrequent occurrences of violent crime.
