Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. In 2010, there were 3 reported incidents, which increased to a peak of 26 in 2021 before dropping to 7 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.43 in 2010 to 1.09 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2022, with a significant spike to 0.15% in 2021. This fluctuation suggests that while overall property crime has decreased, motor vehicle theft remains a concern that may require targeted intervention.

Arson incidents have been relatively rare in the city, with only occasional reports. The highest number of arsons reported was 2 in 2019, representing 0.34% of state arsons that year. In most years, including 2022, no arsons were reported. The sporadic nature of these incidents makes it difficult to establish a clear trend, but the low numbers generally indicate that arson is not a persistent problem in the community.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $55,341 in 2013 to $63,303 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime rates. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units increased from 78% in 2013 to 80% in 2022, which coincides with the decline in burglaries and could indicate that higher home ownership rates contribute to community stability and reduced property crime.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decline, albeit at a slower rate. Burglaries are expected to remain low, potentially reaching near-zero levels. Larceny-theft is projected to continue its downward trend, possibly stabilizing around 20-25 incidents annually. Motor vehicle theft may fluctuate but is likely to average around 5-10 incidents per year. Arson is expected to remain rare, with sporadic occurrences if any.

In conclusion, Crystal City has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, with notable decreases in burglaries and larceny-theft. The correlation between rising incomes, increased home ownership, and declining crime rates suggests that economic stability plays a crucial role in community safety. While motor vehicle theft remains a concern, the overall trend is positive, indicating that the city is becoming safer and more secure for its residents.