Motor vehicle theft trends have been more variable. From 8 incidents in 2010, it increased to 9 in 2022, a 12.5% rise. However, when adjusted for population growth, the rate per 1,000 people remained relatively stable, moving from 1.96 in 2010 to 1.96 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased slightly from 0.06% to 0.04%. This suggests that while the absolute number of thefts increased slightly, it remained proportional to the population growth.

Arson cases have been rare in the city, with only one reported incident in 2019, representing 0.17% of state arsons that year. The lack of consistent arson data makes it difficult to establish a clear trend, but it suggests that arson is not a significant concern for the community.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the decrease in property crimes and the increase in owner-occupied housing. The percentage of owner-occupied housing rose from 65% in 2015 to 78% in 2022, coinciding with the overall reduction in property crimes. This could suggest that increased home ownership contributes to community stability and reduced crime rates.

Applying predictive models based on the current trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may see a further reduction in overall property crimes. Burglaries and larceny-theft are likely to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching even lower levels. Motor vehicle thefts might stabilize or show a slight increase if current patterns persist.

In summary, Warsaw has demonstrated a significant improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-theft. This positive trend, coupled with population growth and increased home ownership, paints a picture of a community that has become safer and more stable. The forecast suggests a continuation of these favorable trends, potentially making the city an increasingly attractive place for residents and businesses alike.