Loading Content...
Violent Crime Trends in Notasulga: A Decade of Decline in an Alabama Town
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Notasulga, a small town in Alabama, has experienced notable changes in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the town witnessed fluctuations in total violent crimes, with a peak of 12 incidents in 2015 and a low of 2 incidents in both 2012 and 2022. This represents a 33.33% decrease in violent crimes from 2010 to 2022. During the same period, Notasulga's population decreased by 10.59%, from 2,521 in 2010 to 2,254 in 2022.
Throughout the observed period from 2010 to 2022, Notasulga maintained a consistent record of zero murders. This stability in the absence of murders is particularly noteworthy, considering the population fluctuations. The murder rate per 1,000 people remained at 0, and the percentage of state crime for murder consistently stood at 0% throughout this period.
Rape incidents in Notasulga have been sporadic. Most years saw no reported rapes, with single incidents occurring in 2011, 2015, and 2017. The rape rate per 1,000 people reached its peak at 0.38 in 2011 when the population was 2,636. The percentage of state rape crimes attributed to the city was highest at 0.11% in 2011. By 2022, there were no reported rapes, indicating a positive trend in recent years.
Robbery trends in Notasulga show minimal occurrences. The city reported single robbery incidents in 2011, 2017, and 2021. The robbery rate per 1,000 people was highest in 2021 at 0.48 when the population was 2,075. The percentage of state robbery crimes attributed to the city peaked at 0.12% in 2021. In 2022, there were no reported robberies, suggesting a recent improvement in this category.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in Notasulga. The number of aggravated assaults ranged from a high of 11 in 2015 to a low of 2 in 2012, 2021, and 2022. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people was highest in 2015 at 3.71 when the population was 2,963. The percentage of state aggravated assault crimes attributed to the city reached its peak at 0.10% in 2015. By 2022, this had decreased to 0.02%, with 2 incidents reported.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a modest relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 180 per square mile in 2010 to 161 per square mile in 2022, there was a general downward trend in violent crimes, although with some fluctuations. The racial composition of the city has remained relatively stable, with the Black population decreasing slightly from 61% in 2013 to 47% in 2022, while the White population increased from 38% to 39% during the same period. This shift doesn't appear to have a strong correlation with violent crime trends.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continuation of the overall downward trend in violent crimes. Based on the recent low numbers of 2-3 violent crimes per year, it's projected that Notasulga may maintain this low level or potentially see further reductions, possibly averaging 1-2 violent crimes annually by 2029.
In summary, Notasulga has experienced a notable decrease in violent crimes over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The absence of murders, infrequent occurrences of rape and robbery, and the recent decline in aggravated assaults paint a picture of improving public safety. These trends, coupled with the population decrease and shifting demographics, suggest that Notasulga is moving towards a safer environment for its residents.
