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Violent Crime Trends in Hill City, Kansas: A Small Town's Fluctuating Safety Profile
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Hill City, Kansas, a small community in the heart of the Sunflower State, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2013, the city experienced a notable fluctuation in violent crime incidents, with the total number decreasing from 5 in 2010 to 3 in 2013, representing a 40% reduction. During this same timeframe, the population declined slightly from 1,773 in 2010 to 1,654 in 2013, a decrease of 6.7%.
Examining murder trends, Hill City reported no incidents of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter throughout the recorded period from 2010 to 2013. This consistent absence of such severe crimes is significant, especially considering the small population. The murder rate per 1,000 people remained at zero, and the city contributed 0% to the state's murder statistics, indicating a relatively safe environment in this regard.
Rape incidents in the city showed a fluctuating pattern. In 2010, there were no reported rapes. However, in 2011, one case was reported, accounting for 0.11% of the state's total. This single incident translated to a rate of approximately 0.57 rapes per 1,000 people, based on the 2011 population. By 2013, the number of reported rapes had returned to zero. This volatility in rape statistics is not uncommon in small populations where a single incident can significantly impact percentages.
Robbery trends in Hill City remained consistently at zero from 2010 to 2013. The city reported no robberies during this period, maintaining a 0% contribution to the state's robbery statistics. This absence of robberies, when viewed in the context of the city's small population, suggests a relatively low risk for this type of crime.
Aggravated assault trends showed the most variation among violent crimes in the city. In 2010, there were 5 reported cases, accounting for 0.08% of the state's total. This equated to a rate of approximately 2.82 assaults per 1,000 residents. The number dropped dramatically to zero in 2011 but then increased to 3 cases in 2013, representing 0.05% of the state's total and a rate of about 1.81 per 1,000 residents. Despite these fluctuations, the overall trend shows a decrease in aggravated assaults from 2010 to 2013.
When examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors, a notable relationship emerges with population density. As the population density decreased from 1,766 per square mile in 2010 to 1,647 in 2013, there was a corresponding decrease in overall violent crimes from 5 to 3. This suggests a potential link between population density and violent crime rates in the city.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on the limited data available, we might expect the overall violent crime rate to remain relatively stable or potentially decrease slightly. However, given the small population and the volatility seen in the past, individual years may show fluctuations.
In summary, Hill City, Kansas demonstrates a complex picture of violent crime trends. The most significant discoveries include the consistent absence of murders and robberies, the fluctuating but generally low rates of rape and aggravated assault, and the potential correlation between decreasing population density and reduced violent crime. These trends, when viewed in the broader context of a small, rural city, suggest a relatively safe community with occasional spikes in certain types of violent crime that have a pronounced effect due to the small population size.
