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Property Crime Trends in Winfield, Kansas: A Decade of Fluctuations and Resilience
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Winfield, Kansas, a city of approximately 14,308 residents as of 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, total property crimes in the city decreased by 23%, from 409 to 315 incidents. During this same period, the population declined by about 5.4%, from 15,127 to 14,308 residents, indicating a more significant reduction in crime relative to population change.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a general downward trend, with some fluctuations. In 2010, there were 69 burglaries, which increased to a peak of 95 in 2018 before declining to 47 in 2022, representing a 31.9% decrease over the entire period. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 4.56 in 2010 to 3.28 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.47% in 2010 to 0.77% in 2022, suggesting a slower decline compared to the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a downward trend. Incidents decreased from 323 in 2010 to 241 in 2022, a 25.4% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 21.35 to 16.84 over the same period. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased slightly from 0.61% to 0.69%, indicating that the local reduction was somewhat in line with state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city fluctuated over the years but ultimately increased. In 2010, there were 17 incidents, which rose to 27 in 2022, a 58.8% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 1.12 to 1.89. Despite this increase, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased only slightly from 0.33% to 0.52%, suggesting that this trend may be part of a broader regional or state-wide phenomenon.
Arson cases in the city have remained relatively low but showed an increase. From no reported cases in 2010, there were 3 incidents in 2022. While this represents a significant percentage increase, the small numbers make it difficult to draw definitive conclusions. The city's share of state arson cases increased from 0% to 1.05%, indicating a higher relative incidence compared to the state average.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's median income increased from $49,864 in 2013 to $51,864 in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes. This suggests a potential negative correlation between income levels and property crime rates. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 63% and 68% during the period, which may have contributed to the overall decline in burglaries.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), Winfield may see a continued gradual decrease in overall property crimes, with larceny-theft and burglary likely to decline further. However, motor vehicle theft could potentially continue its upward trend if current patterns persist. Arson cases are expected to remain low but may fluctuate given the small numbers involved.
In summary, Winfield has experienced a general improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. This positive trend, coupled with demographic stability and income growth, suggests a potentially improving quality of life for residents. However, the increase in motor vehicle thefts and the city's growing share of state crime in some categories warrant continued attention from local law enforcement and community leaders to maintain and enhance public safety in the coming years.
