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Property Crime Trends in El Dorado, Kansas: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
El Dorado, located in Kansas, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates alongside population changes over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 36.9%, from 434 to 274 incidents. During this same period, the population declined by 6.5%, from 15,654 to 14,636 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 90 burglaries, which decreased to 24 in 2022, representing a 73.3% reduction. When examining burglaries per 1,000 residents, the rate fell from 5.75 in 2010 to 1.64 in 2022. However, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated dramatically, dropping from 0.61% in 2010 to 0.39% in 2022, with a notable spike to 9.96% in 2021. This volatility suggests changing local factors influencing burglary rates relative to state trends.
Larceny-theft incidents decreased from 311 in 2010 to 213 in 2022, a 31.5% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents declined from 19.87 to 14.55 over this period. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, moving from 0.59% in 2010 to 0.61% in 2022, indicating that local trends generally aligned with state patterns.
Motor vehicle theft showed an increase from 33 incidents in 2010 to 37 in 2022, a 12.1% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 2.11 to 2.53. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased slightly from 0.64% to 0.71% over this period, suggesting a marginally higher growth rate compared to the state average.
Arson cases in the city remained low but doubled from 1 incident in 2010 to 2 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.06 to 0.14. The city's proportion of state arsons rose from 0.22% to 0.70%, indicating a faster increase in arson rates compared to the state average.
Analysis of correlations reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $55,587 in 2013 to $62,365 in 2021, property crime rates generally declined. However, this trend was not consistent, as evidenced by the spike in property crimes to 589 incidents in 2021 despite the highest median income recorded.
The percentage of owner-occupied housing showed a slight positive correlation with reduced property crime rates. As ownership increased from 63% in 2013 to 65% in 2022, there was a general downward trend in property crimes, although with some fluctuations.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary rates are expected to continue their downward trend, while larceny-theft may plateau. Motor vehicle theft could see a modest increase if current trends persist. Arson rates are likely to remain low but unpredictable due to their infrequent occurrence.
In summary, El Dorado has shown overall improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The relationship between economic factors such as median income and home ownership appears to have some influence on crime rates. However, the significant fluctuations in certain years highlight the complex nature of crime trends and the potential impact of local factors. As the city moves forward, continued monitoring and adaptive strategies will be crucial in maintaining and improving public safety.
