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Fluctuating Violent Crime Trends in Baxter Springs, Kansas: A Decade of Stability and Change
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Baxter Springs, located in Kansas, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable increase from 6 incidents in 2010 to 7 in 2022, representing a 16.67% rise. During this same period, the population experienced a slight decline, decreasing from 5,018 in 2010 to 4,839 in 2022, a 3.57% reduction.
Examining murder trends, Baxter Springs has maintained a consistent record of zero murders reported from 2010 to 2022. This stability in the absence of murders is particularly noteworthy given the population changes. The murder rate per 1,000 people has remained at zero throughout this period, and the city has consistently accounted for 0% of the state's murders. This trend suggests a relatively safe environment in terms of lethal violence.
Rape incidents in the city have shown some variability over the years. In 2010, there were 2 reported cases, which increased to 3 in 2011. However, from 2012 to 2017, no rape cases were reported. The trend shifted again with 1 case in 2018, 2 in 2019, a spike to 6 in 2020, and then 3 cases in 2022. The rape rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.40 in 2010 to 0.62 in 2022. The city's contribution to state rape cases also varied, peaking at 1.33% in 2020 before settling at 0.31% in 2022. These fluctuations, especially the 2020 spike, warrant attention in the context of community safety and law enforcement strategies.
Robbery trends in Baxter Springs have been minimal. The city reported zero robberies for most years, with only two incidents in 2015 and two in 2017. This translates to a robbery rate of 0 per 1,000 people for most years, with a peak of 0.42 per 1,000 in 2015 and 2017. The city's contribution to state robbery cases was 0.12% in 2015 and 0.16% in 2017, returning to 0% in other years. This low robbery rate suggests a relatively secure environment for personal property.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents fluctuated significantly, from a low of 2 cases in 2012 to a high of 19 in 2021. The rate per 1,000 people varied accordingly, from 0.40 in 2012 to 3.92 in 2021. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases peaked at 0.61% in 2021, dropping to 0.05% in 2022. This volatility in aggravated assault rates could indicate changing social dynamics or law enforcement focus areas over the years.
A strong correlation appears to exist between violent crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 1,593 per square mile in 2010 to 1,536 in 2022, there was a general upward trend in violent crime, particularly in aggravated assaults. This suggests that factors other than population concentration may be influencing crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime rates. This projection is based on the recent downward trend observed from 2021 to 2022, where total violent crimes decreased from 19 to 7. However, given the historical volatility, particularly in aggravated assaults, periodic spikes in certain crime categories remain possible.
In summary, Baxter Springs has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The absence of murders and low robbery rates are positive indicators, while the variability in rape cases and aggravated assaults suggest areas for focused community and law enforcement attention. The inverse relationship between population density and crime rates highlights the complex nature of urban safety dynamics in this small Kansas city.
