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Violent Crime Trends in Hennessey, Oklahoma: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Small Town
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Hennessey, located in Oklahoma, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a peak of 5 incidents in 2019 and a low of 0 in 2022. Over this period, the population grew from 3,294 in 2011 to 3,427 in 2022, representing a 4.04% increase.
Examining murder trends, Hennessey experienced only one incident in 2015, accounting for 0.52% of the state's murders that year. This singular event translated to a rate of 0.32 murders per 1,000 people. In all other years, the murder rate remained at zero, indicating an overall low incidence of this severe crime.
Rape cases in the city showed sporadic occurrences. The first reported incidents were in 2018 and 2019, with two cases each year, representing 0.1% and 0.11% of the state's rapes respectively. This translated to rates of 0.58 and 0.53 rapes per 1,000 people in those years. The city then saw no reported rapes in 2020-2022, suggesting a positive trend in recent years.
Robbery incidents were rare, with only two reported cases over the 12-year period. In 2011, there was one robbery, accounting for 0.03% of the state's robberies, and another in 2019, representing 0.04% of state robberies. These incidents occurred when the population was 3,294 and 3,769 respectively, resulting in rates of 0.30 and 0.27 robberies per 1,000 people.
Aggravated assault was the most common violent crime in Hennessey. The highest number of incidents was 4 in 2012, representing 0.04% of the state's aggravated assaults that year. The rate fluctuated over time, with notable years being 2012 (1.27 per 1,000 people), 2017 (0.62 per 1,000 people), and 2021 (0.58 per 1,000 people). The percentage of state aggravated assaults ranged from 0% to 0.04% over the period.
Analyzing correlations, there appears to be a weak positive relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 888 per square mile in 2011 to 924 in 2022, there was a general, though inconsistent, upward trend in violent crime incidents. However, this correlation is not strong enough to draw definitive conclusions.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued low incidence of violent crimes in Hennessey. Based on the recent downward trend, with zero violent crimes reported in 2022, we project that the city will likely maintain very low crime rates, possibly averaging 1-2 incidents per year. However, given the small population and historical fluctuations, occasional spikes similar to the 5 incidents in 2019 cannot be ruled out.
In summary, Hennessey has maintained relatively low violent crime rates over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the most prevalent issue. The city's small size contributes to significant percentage fluctuations when incidents occur, but overall, the trend suggests a safe community with infrequent violent crime occurrences. The recent years' data, particularly the zero incidents in 2022, indicate a positive trajectory for public safety in Hennessey.
