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Violent Crime Trends in Tahlequah: Cherokee Heritage City Shows Overall Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Tahlequah, located in Oklahoma, presents an interesting case study for violent crime trends over the past decade. With a population of 18,206 in 2022, this small city has experienced fluctuations in its violent crime rates amid modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 21.2%, from 33 to 26 incidents, while the population increased by 5.8% during the same period.
Murder rates in the city have remained relatively low, with most years reporting zero incidents. However, there were notable exceptions in 2013 and 2020, each with 2 murders reported. These spikes represented 1.23% and 0.83% of the state's total murders in those respective years. The murder rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.11 in 2013 and 2020, compared to zero in most other years. Despite these isolated incidents, the overall trend suggests that murder remains an infrequent occurrence in the city.
Rape incidents have shown a significant decline over the years. In 2010, there were 7 reported cases, representing 0.58% of the state's total. By 2022, this number had dropped to zero, with fluctuations in between. The rape rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.41 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. This trend indicates a substantial improvement in this aspect of violent crime within the community.
Robbery trends have been more variable. The number of robberies peaked at 11 in 2014 and 2018, representing 0.38% and 0.41% of the state's total, respectively. However, by 2022, robberies had decreased to 2 incidents, or 0.13% of the state's total. The robbery rate per 1,000 people fell from 0.35 in 2010 to 0.11 in 2022, showing an overall downward trend despite some fluctuations.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents peaked at 40 in 2013, representing 0.4% of the state's total. By 2022, this had decreased to 24 incidents, or 0.22% of the state's total. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.16 in 2010 to 1.32 in 2022, showing a slight increase relative to population growth.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,347 per square mile in 2010 to 1,426 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate tended to decrease. This suggests that the growing population may have contributed to increased community vigilance or improved law enforcement capabilities.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continuation of the overall downward trend in violent crime rates. The model suggests that by 2029, the total number of violent crimes could potentially decrease to around 20-22 incidents per year, assuming current trends and interventions remain consistent.
In summary, Tahlequah has shown a generally positive trend in reducing violent crime over the past decade, particularly in the categories of rape and robbery. While aggravated assault remains a concern, its prevalence relative to the population has only slightly increased. The city's growing population and increasing density appear to correlate with reduced crime rates, potentially indicating improved community safety measures. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining and enhancing these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the ongoing safety and well-being of its residents.
