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Property Crime Trends in Bokchito, Oklahoma: Stability Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Bokchito, a town in Oklahoma, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2019 to 2022, the total number of property crimes remained constant at 14 incidents per year, despite a significant population decrease from 756 to 603, representing a 20.2% reduction. This stability in crime numbers against a backdrop of population decline offers a unique perspective on the town's changing dynamics.
Burglary rates in Bokchito have shown some fluctuation over the observed period. In 2019, there were 2 reported burglaries, which increased to 3 in 2020, before returning to 2 in both 2021 and 2022. When accounting for population changes, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents increased from 2.65 in 2019 to 3.32 in 2022, despite the consistent number of incidents. The town's contribution to state-wide burglary statistics remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.01% and 0.02% of the state's total.
Larceny-theft incidents demonstrated more noticeable changes. The number of larceny-thefts decreased from 9 in 2019 to 6 in 2020, before increasing to 11 in both 2021 and 2022. This represents a 22.2% increase from 2019 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the rate of larceny-theft per 1,000 residents rose significantly from 11.90 in 2019 to 18.24 in 2022. The town's contribution to state-wide larceny-theft statistics doubled from 0.01% in 2019 to 0.02% in 2021 and 2022, indicating a growing share of the state's larceny-theft incidents.
Motor vehicle theft in Bokchito remained relatively stable, with 2 incidents reported in 2019, decreasing to 1 in 2020, and remaining at 1 for 2021 and 2022. However, when considering the population decline, the rate per 1,000 residents actually increased slightly from 2.65 in 2019 to 1.66 in 2022. The town's contribution to state-wide motor vehicle theft statistics remained consistent at 0.01% from 2020 to 2022.
Arson incidents were consistently reported as 0 throughout the observed period from 2019 to 2022, with the town contributing 0% to the state's arson statistics. This suggests that arson is not a significant concern for the local community.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 1,105 per square mile in 2019 to 882 in 2022, there was a slight increase in the overall property crime rate per capita. This suggests a potential inverse relationship between population density and crime rates in this particular case.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization of property crime rates. If current trends continue, the town may experience a slight increase in larceny-theft incidents, while burglary and motor vehicle theft rates are likely to remain relatively stable. However, these predictions should be interpreted cautiously given the small sample size and the significant population changes observed in recent years.
In summary, Bokchito has experienced stable overall property crime numbers despite significant population decline. The most notable trend has been the increase in larceny-theft incidents, both in absolute numbers and as a proportion of state-wide statistics. These trends, coupled with the changing demographics, suggest a need for continued vigilance and potentially targeted crime prevention strategies, particularly focusing on larceny-theft prevention, as the community continues to evolve.
