Robbery trends show a different pattern. The number of robberies decreased from 22 in 2010 to 15 in 2022, a 31.82% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 people also decreased from 0.65 to 0.48 during this period. However, the city's contribution to the state's total robberies increased slightly from 0.12% to 0.14%, suggesting that while robberies decreased locally, they may have decreased at a faster rate statewide.

Aggravated assault cases have seen a slight increase, from 105 in 2010 to 106 in 2022, a 0.95% rise. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 3.08 to 3.36 during this period. The city's contribution to the state's total aggravated assaults rose from 0.42% to 0.83%, indicating that this type of violent crime has become a more significant issue in Granite City relative to the state.

Examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The increase in violent crimes coincides with a decrease in population density, which fell from 1,791 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,659 in 2022. This suggests that factors other than population density are driving the rise in violent crime. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the increase in violent crime and changes in racial demographics. The percentage of white residents decreased from 86% in 2013 to 80% in 2022, while the percentage of Black residents increased from 6% to 10% during the same period. This shift in racial composition coincides with the rise in violent crime, though it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued upward trend. Based on the historical data, we can project that the total number of violent crimes may reach approximately 200-220 incidents by 2029 if current trends persist. This forecast assumes that socioeconomic factors and law enforcement strategies remain relatively constant.

In summary, Granite City has experienced a complex evolution in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. While some categories like robbery have shown improvement, others such as rape and murder have seen concerning increases. The rise in violent crime against a backdrop of population decline is particularly noteworthy. These trends, coupled with demographic shifts, present challenges for local law enforcement and community leaders. As Granite City moves forward, addressing these crime trends while considering the changing demographics will be crucial for improving public safety and community well-being.