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Property Crime Trends in Mendota, Illinois: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Mendota, Illinois, a small city in LaSalle County, has experienced notable shifts in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 177 to an incomplete data set in 2020, representing a substantial reduction. This decline occurred alongside a slight population decrease from 8,565 in 2010 to 8,336 in 2020, a 2.67% reduction.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a marked decline over the years. In 2010, there were 24 reported burglaries, which peaked at 70 in 2012 before steadily decreasing to 15 in 2020. This represents a 37.5% decrease from 2010 to 2020. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.80 in 2010 to 1.80 in 2020. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.07% in 2020, suggesting a potentially slower decline compared to the state average.
Larceny-theft incidents also demonstrated a significant downward trend. From 152 cases in 2010, the number dropped to 48 in 2019, the last year with available data, marking a 68.4% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents declined from 17.75 in 2010 to 5.80 in 2019. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases decreased from 0.09% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2019, indicating a faster decline than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown fluctuations but remains relatively low. From a single reported case in 2010, the number increased to 6 in 2018 before dropping to 3 in 2019 and rising again to 7 in 2020. The rate per 1,000 residents went from 0.12 in 2010 to 0.84 in 2020. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2020, suggesting a relative increase compared to state trends.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic. There were no reported cases in most years, with exceptions in 2012 (6 cases) and 2015-2016 (1 case each year). The arson rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 0.70 in 2012 but remained at 0 for most other years. The city's contribution to state arson cases was highest in 2012 at 0.56% but has since returned to 0%.
A strong correlation appears between the decline in property crimes and the slight decrease in population density, which fell from 1,694 per square mile in 2010 to 1,648 in 2020. Additionally, there seems to be an inverse relationship between the rising median income (from $60,866 in 2013 to $65,430 in 2020) and the decreasing property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglaries are expected to stabilize around 10-12 cases annually, while larceny-theft might see a further reduction to approximately 35-40 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts are projected to remain low but volatile, potentially averaging 4-5 cases annually. Arson cases are expected to remain rare, with possibly one or two incidents over the five-year period.
In summary, Mendota has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes over the past decade, with notable decreases in burglaries and larceny-theft. This positive trend, occurring alongside a slight population decrease and increasing median income, suggests improved economic conditions and potentially more effective law enforcement strategies. While the city's share of some state-level crimes has increased, this is likely due to faster crime reduction rates in other parts of Illinois rather than a worsening local situation. The projected continuation of these trends indicates a potentially safer and more prosperous future for Mendota's residents.
