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Violent Crime Trends in Fairborn, Ohio: A Decade of Contrasting Patterns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Fairborn, Ohio has witnessed significant changes in its violent crime landscape over the past decade, coinciding with steady population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced a 90% increase in total violent crimes, with incidents rising from 50 to 95. During this same period, the population grew by approximately 7%, from 39,272 to 42,044 residents. This demographic shift has been accompanied by varying trends across different categories of violent crime.
The murder rate in Fairborn has remained relatively low, with most years recording zero murders. However, isolated incidents occurred in 2013, 2016, 2018, and 2022, with the number of murders never exceeding three in a single year. Despite these occurrences, the murder rate per 1,000 people has consistently stayed below 0.1. The city's contribution to state murder statistics has fluctuated, peaking at 1.01% in 2013 and 0.57% in 2016, before decreasing to 0.16% in 2022. These figures indicate that while murders are infrequent in Fairborn, they can significantly impact the city's share of state crime statistics when they do occur.
Rape incidents in Fairborn have shown an overall increasing trend, rising from 10 cases in 2010 to 36 in 2022, marking a 260% increase. The rate per 1,000 people has also increased from 0.25 in 2010 to 0.86 in 2022. The city's contribution to state rape statistics has grown from 0.37% in 2010 to 0.9% in 2022, suggesting that rape has become a more prevalent issue in Fairborn relative to state figures.
Robbery cases in Fairborn have fluctuated but show an overall declining trend. From 26 incidents in 2010, the number dropped to 7 in 2022, representing a 73% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 0.66 in 2010 to 0.17 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies has also decreased from 0.18% to 0.13% over this period, indicating improved safety in this category relative to state trends.
Aggravated assault has seen a significant increase in Fairborn, rising from 14 cases in 2010 to 51 in 2022, a 264% increase. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 0.36 in 2010 to 1.21 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics has increased from 0.12% to 0.3% over this period, signifying that this crime category has become a more pressing concern for the city.
There appears to be a correlation between the increase in violent crimes and population density in Fairborn, which rose from 2,695 people per square mile in 2010 to 2,885 in 2022. This suggests that as the city became more densely populated, it experienced a corresponding rise in violent crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued increase in overall violent crime in Fairborn if current trends persist. Specifically, aggravated assaults and rapes may continue to rise, while robbery rates are likely to remain low or potentially decrease further. Murder rates are expected to remain low but unpredictable due to their infrequent nature.
In summary, Fairborn has experienced a significant increase in violent crimes over the past decade, particularly in aggravated assaults and rapes, while seeing improvements in robbery rates. The city's growing population density appears to correlate with these crime trends. As the community continues to evolve, addressing these crime patterns, especially the rising assault and rape incidents, will be crucial for enhancing public safety and maintaining the quality of life for Fairborn's residents.
