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Violent Crime Trends in Bucyrus, Ohio: A Small City's Changing Safety Landscape
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Bucyrus, located in Ohio, has experienced fluctuations in violent crime rates over the years, set against a backdrop of gradual population decline. From 2014 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased by 17.24%, from 29 to 34 incidents. During this same period, the city's population decreased by 4.68%, from 13,005 to 12,396 residents.
Murder rates in the city have remained exceptionally low, with zero incidents reported from 2014 to 2021. However, in 2022, there was one murder case, resulting in a rate of 0.08 per 1,000 people. This single incident represented 0.16% of Ohio's total murders that year, a significant increase for a city of this size. While this spike is concerning, it's important to note that one incident in a small population can drastically affect percentages.
Rape cases have shown a general upward trend. In 2014, there were 3 reported cases (0.23 per 1,000 people), which increased to 9 cases (0.73 per 1,000 people) by 2022. This represents a 200% increase in the number of cases and a 217% increase in the rate per 1,000 people. The city's percentage of state rape cases rose from 0.09% in 2014 to 0.23% in 2022, indicating a growing concern relative to the state's overall figures.
Robbery incidents have fluctuated over the years. In 2014, there were 7 robberies (0.54 per 1,000 people), which decreased to 5 (0.40 per 1,000 people) by 2022. This represents a 28.57% decrease in the number of cases and a 25.93% decrease in the rate per 1,000 people. The city's share of state robbery cases increased slightly from 0.06% in 2014 to 0.09% in 2022, suggesting a relatively stable situation compared to state trends.
Aggravated assault cases have remained relatively stable, with some fluctuations. In 2014, there were 19 cases (1.46 per 1,000 people), which remained the same at 19 cases (1.53 per 1,000 people) in 2022. While the number of cases remained constant, the rate per 1,000 people increased by 4.79% due to population decline. The city's percentage of state aggravated assault cases decreased slightly from 0.17% in 2014 to 0.11% in 2022, indicating a relatively stable situation compared to state trends.
There appears to be a correlation between the slight increase in violent crime rates and the gradual decrease in population density. As the population density decreased from 1,759 per square mile in 2014 to 1,677 per square mile in 2022, violent crime rates showed a modest increase. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the slight increase in racial diversity and the increase in certain types of violent crimes. The percentage of white residents decreased from 95% in 2014 to 92% in 2022, while the percentage of Hispanic residents increased from 0% to 4%, and those identifying as two or more races increased from 1% to 3%.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Bucyrus may see a continued slight increase in overall violent crime rates if current trends persist. Rape cases may continue to rise, potentially reaching around 12-15 cases per year. Aggravated assault cases might show a modest increase to about 22-25 cases annually. Robbery rates are expected to remain relatively stable or show a slight decrease.
In summary, Bucyrus has experienced a complex evolution in its violent crime landscape. While murder rates have remained very low, there has been a notable increase in rape cases and a slight uptick in overall violent crime rates. These changes have occurred against a backdrop of declining population and increasing diversity. The city's law enforcement and community leaders may need to focus on addressing the rising rape cases and maintaining vigilance in other areas to ensure public safety in the coming years.
