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Property Crime Decline in Nelsonville, Ohio: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Nelsonville, located in Ohio, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in the city decreased significantly by 72.3%, from 260 incidents to 72. This substantial reduction occurred alongside a population decline of 10.5%, from 7,046 residents in 2010 to 6,309 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 96 burglaries reported, which dropped to 20 in 2022, representing a 79.2% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 13.6 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 3.2 per 1,000 in 2022. Despite this decrease, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, reaching a peak of 0.16% in 2019 before settling at 0.09% in 2022. This suggests that while local efforts to reduce burglaries have been effective, the city's contribution to state-wide burglary statistics remains relatively stable.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a significant reduction. Incidents decreased from 158 in 2010 to 48 in 2022, a 69.6% drop. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 22.4 in 2010 to 7.6 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny thefts decreased from 0.10% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2022, indicating that the local reduction outpaced the state-wide trend. This suggests effective local strategies in combating petty theft and similar crimes.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. The number of incidents increased from 6 in 2010 to 4 in 2022, with fluctuations in between, peaking at 19 in 2020. The rate per 1,000 residents rose slightly from 0.85 in 2010 to 0.63 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022, suggesting that while local numbers remained relatively stable, state-wide incidents may have increased more rapidly.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and low in number. There was 1 reported case in 2010, 2016, and 2021, with no cases reported in other years. The rate per 1,000 residents has remained consistently low, never exceeding 0.14. The city's contribution to state arson statistics has been minimal, with the highest percentage being 0.13% in 2021.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decrease in property crimes coincides with a slight decrease in population density, from 1,506 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,348 in 2022. There's also a notable correlation with median income, which increased from $31,134 in 2013 to $34,054 in 2022, suggesting that improved economic conditions may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decrease in overall property crime rates. Based on the current trends, we might expect to see burglary rates stabilize around 2-3 incidents per 1,000 residents, larceny theft rates potentially dropping to 5-6 per 1,000, and motor vehicle theft rates remaining low at around 0.5-0.7 per 1,000. Arson cases are likely to remain sporadic and low.
In conclusion, Nelsonville has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes over the past decade, outpacing its population decline. This trend, coupled with rising median incomes and stable racial demographics, suggests a positive trajectory for community safety. The city's decreasing contribution to state-wide property crime statistics indicates that local crime prevention strategies may be particularly effective and could potentially serve as a model for other similar-sized communities in Ohio.
