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Violent Crime Trends in Chesterfield, Missouri: A Decade of Progress Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Chesterfield, located in Missouri, is a suburban community known for its high quality of life and strong economy. Over the past decade, this city has experienced notable fluctuations in its violent crime rates alongside steady population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 23.91%, from 46 to 35 incidents. During this same period, the population increased by 4.08%, from 46,381 to 48,275 residents.
Examining murder rates, Chesterfield has maintained a consistent record of zero murders reported annually from 2010 to 2022. This stability in the absence of murders is particularly noteworthy given the population growth, resulting in a consistent murder rate of 0 per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to the state's murder statistics has remained at 0% throughout this period, highlighting its relative safety in this category of violent crime.
Rape incidents in the city have shown some variability over the years. In 2010, there were 2 reported cases, which increased to 4 in 2022, representing a 100% increase. However, when considering the population growth, the rate per 1,000 people only marginally increased from 0.043 in 2010 to 0.083 in 2022. The city's percentage of state rape cases fluctuated, peaking at 0.37% in 2017 before decreasing to 0.19% in 2022. This suggests that while the absolute number of rapes has increased, the city's contribution to state totals has remained relatively low.
Robbery trends show a decrease over time. In 2010, there were 11 reported robberies, which decreased to 5 in 2022, marking a 54.55% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 people also declined from 0.237 in 2010 to 0.104 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies decreased from 0.2% in 2010 to 0.16% in 2022, indicating an improvement in this area relative to state trends.
Aggravated assault cases in Chesterfield have shown a slight decline. In 2010, there were 33 reported cases, which decreased to 26 in 2022, representing a 21.21% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people also decreased from 0.711 in 2010 to 0.538 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases decreased from 0.23% in 2010 to 0.15% in 2022, suggesting a positive trend in comparison to state-wide figures.
Analyzing correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,456 per square mile in 2010 to 1,516 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate decreased. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between changes in racial demographics and crime rates. As the white population percentage decreased from 84% in 2013 to 74% in 2022, and the Asian population increased from 8% to 13%, violent crime rates showed an overall downward trend.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's forecasted that by 2029 (five years from now), Chesterfield may see a further reduction in violent crimes. The model suggests a potential decrease of 10-15% in overall violent crime rates, with robberies and aggravated assaults likely to see the most significant reductions.
In conclusion, Chesterfield has demonstrated a generally positive trend in violent crime reduction over the past decade, despite population growth. The absence of murders, decreasing robbery and aggravated assault rates, and only a slight increase in rape incidents paint a picture of a city that has managed to maintain and even improve its safety profile. These trends, coupled with demographic shifts and increasing population density, suggest that Chesterfield is likely to continue its trajectory of decreasing violent crime rates in the coming years, reinforcing its reputation as a safe and desirable community.
