Motor vehicle theft appears to be the most prevalent property crime in the city, with cases reported in 2011, 2018, and 2020. In 2011, there were 2 reported cases, equating to approximately 3 thefts per 1,000 people. In 2018 and 2020, there was 1 case each year, translating to rates of about 1.4 and 1.9 thefts per 1,000 people, respectively. The percentage of state motor vehicle thefts attributed to the city fluctuated between 0.01% and 0.02%, indicating a minimal contribution to state-wide statistics but a persistent local issue.

Arson cases were not reported in the city during the examined period, with the percentage of state arson cases consistently at 0%.

When examining correlations between property crime trends and other factors, a noteworthy relationship emerges with population density. The years with reported motor vehicle thefts (2011, 2018, and 2020) coincide with periods of relatively high population density, suggesting a potential link between increased population concentration and vehicle theft occurrences.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), it's anticipated that motor vehicle theft will remain the primary property crime concern. Based on the historical pattern, we might expect to see 1-2 cases every 2-3 years, with potential increases if population density continues to rise.

In summary, Arbyrd's property crime landscape is characterized by infrequent occurrences, with motor vehicle theft emerging as the most persistent issue. The correlation between population density and vehicle thefts suggests that community vigilance and targeted prevention strategies may be beneficial as the city's demographics continue to evolve. While the overall property crime rates remain low, ongoing monitoring and community-based prevention efforts could help maintain and potentially improve the city's safety profile in the coming years.