Robbery trends in Alton mirror those of murder and rape, with no reported incidents from 2010 to 2017. The robbery rate per 1,000 people has remained at 0, and the city's share of state robberies has consistently been 0%. This indicates that property crimes involving threat or use of force have not been a concern in the official crime statistics of the city.

Aggravated assault is the only violent crime category that shows any variation in the data provided. In 2012, there were 18 reported cases of aggravated assault, which represented 0.12% of the state's total aggravated assaults for that year. This spike is significant, as it occurred when the population was 2,313, resulting in a rate of approximately 7.78 aggravated assaults per 1,000 people. However, in all other years with available data (2010, 2011, 2015, and 2017), the number of aggravated assaults returned to zero.

When examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors, the most notable relationship appears to be with population density. The spike in aggravated assaults in 2012 coincided with a period of higher population density (1,474 people per square mile) compared to years with no reported violent crimes. However, this correlation is not consistent across all years, as there were periods of similar or higher density without reported violent crimes.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) is challenging due to the limited and inconsistent data available. However, based on the historical pattern, it's reasonable to predict that Alton will likely continue to experience very low rates of violent crime, with the possibility of occasional spikes in aggravated assaults. The forecast suggests that most years will see zero or near-zero incidents across all violent crime categories, with potential isolated increases in aggravated assaults not exceeding the 2012 peak of 18 cases.

In summary, Alton's violent crime trends reveal a community that has generally maintained very low levels of reported violent crime, with the exception of a notable spike in aggravated assaults in 2012. The city's contribution to state-wide violent crime statistics has been minimal, often registering at 0% across all categories. While the data suggests a generally safe environment, the variability in aggravated assault numbers indicates the potential for isolated incidents. These findings underscore the importance of continued vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies to maintain the overall low violent crime rates in Alton.