Robbery incidents have remained low, with a maximum of 3 cases reported in 2015 (0.63 per 1,000 people). In 2022, there was 1 robbery (0.20 per 1,000 people), representing 0.03% of state robberies. The consistently low numbers indicate that robbery is not a major issue in the city, though its occurrence still impacts the community's sense of safety.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in Fredericktown. The number of cases peaked at 27 in 2014 (5.98 per 1,000 people) and stood at 10 in 2022 (2.05 per 1,000 people). The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases has fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.19% in 2014 and settling at 0.06% in 2022. This trend suggests a significant improvement in recent years, though it remains the primary violent crime concern for the community.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,044 per square mile in 2010 to 1,129 in 2022, there was a general upward trend in violent crimes, though not consistently year-over-year. The racial composition of the city has remained relatively stable, with the white population decreasing slightly from 95% in 2013 to 91% in 2022, while the Hispanic population increased from 2% to 5% over the same period. However, there is no strong correlation between these demographic shifts and violent crime trends.

Applying predictive models based on the available data, it is estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), Fredericktown may see a slight increase in violent crimes to approximately 18-20 incidents per year if current trends continue. This projection assumes a continuation of the city's population growth and takes into account the fluctuating nature of crime rates in small communities.

In summary, Fredericktown has experienced varying levels of violent crime over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the most significant concern. While the overall number of violent crimes has increased since 2010, recent years have shown some improvement, particularly in reducing aggravated assaults. The city's contribution to state crime figures remains relatively small, reflecting its size and character as a small Missouri community. As Fredericktown continues to grow, ongoing monitoring and community-based crime prevention efforts will be crucial in maintaining and improving public safety.