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Property Crime Trends in Waverly, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Waverly, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2017, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 13 in 2010, dropping to 2 in 2014, and then rising back to 13 in 2017. This represents no overall change in the total number of property crimes during this period. Meanwhile, the population showed a slight decrease from 1,205 in 2010 to 1,155 in 2022, a decline of about 4.15%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 3 burglaries, which decreased to 0 in 2014, but then sharply increased to 9 in 2017. This translates to a 200% increase from 2010 to 2017. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people rose from 2.49 in 2010 to 7.47 in 2017, a substantial increase. The city's share of state burglaries also grew from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2017, indicating a disproportionate rise compared to state-wide trends.
Larceny-theft incidents showed a downward trend. There were 10 cases in 2010, which dropped to 2 in 2014, and slightly increased to 3 in 2017. This represents a 70% decrease from 2010 to 2017. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 8.30 in 2010 to 2.49 in 2017. Interestingly, the city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases dropped from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.00% in 2017, suggesting a more significant decrease compared to state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft remained relatively low throughout the period. There were no reported cases in 2010 and 2014, with only 1 case reported in 2017. This single case in 2017 represented 0.01% of state motor vehicle thefts, indicating a minimal impact on state-wide statistics.
Arson cases were not reported in 2010 and 2011, but 1 case was reported in both 2014 and 2017. This represents a consistent rate of 0.83 arsons per 1,000 people in those years. Notably, these single cases accounted for 0.12% and 0.13% of state arson cases in 2014 and 2017 respectively, suggesting a disproportionate representation in state statistics given the city's small size.
There appears to be a correlation between property crime trends and median income. As the median income increased from $38,065 in 2013 to $49,348 in 2018, the total number of property crimes increased from 2 in 2014 to 13 in 2017. This suggests that rising incomes may have led to more attractive targets for property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we might expect to see a continued fluctuation in property crime rates. The burglary rate may stabilize or slightly decrease as awareness and preventive measures potentially improve. Larceny-theft could continue its downward trend, while motor vehicle theft and arson rates might remain low but sporadic.
In summary, Waverly has experienced varying trends in different types of property crimes over the years. The most significant changes were seen in burglary rates, which increased substantially, and larceny-theft, which showed a marked decrease. These trends, coupled with the city's disproportionate representation in state arson statistics, suggest a unique property crime landscape that may require targeted strategies for prevention and law enforcement in the coming years.
