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Rising Home Values and Shifting Ownership in Fredericktown, Missouri: A Decade of Housing Market Dynamics
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Fredericktown, Missouri, a small city in Madison County with a population of 4,886 as of 2022, has experienced notable changes in its housing market over the past decade. The city's homeownership rates have fluctuated, ranging from a peak of 70% in 2015 and 2016 to a recent low of 63%. Despite these variations, Fredericktown has maintained a relatively stable balance between homeowners and renters. Coinciding with these ownership trends, average home prices in the city have seen a significant upward trajectory, increasing from $91,530 in 2015 to $153,888 in 2022, representing a substantial 68% growth over seven years.
The relationship between federal interest rates and homeownership rates in Fredericktown appears to follow expected patterns. During the period of historically low interest rates between 2020 and 2021 (0.38% and 0.08% respectively), homeownership rates remained stable at 63%. This stability during a time of low interest rates suggests that other factors, such as local economic conditions or housing supply, may have also influenced the market.
Renter percentages in Fredericktown have fluctuated inversely to homeownership rates, ranging from 30% in 2015-2016 to 37% in recent years. Average rent prices have shown considerable volatility over the same period, increasing from $554 in 2013 to a peak of $798 in 2017 before declining to $637 in 2022. This fluctuation in rent prices doesn't appear to correlate strongly with the renter percentage, indicating that other factors such as local economic conditions, housing supply, or demographic shifts may be influencing the rental market.
The most recent data shows that average home prices in Fredericktown continued to rise in 2023 and 2024, reaching $158,377 and $163,527 respectively. This represents a 6.3% increase from 2022 to 2024. Concurrently, federal interest rates have also increased significantly, rising to 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024. These higher interest rates may impact affordability and potentially influence future homeownership rates in the city.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, it is anticipated that average home prices in Fredericktown will continue to rise, albeit at a potentially slower pace due to higher interest rates. By 2029, average home prices could reach approximately $190,000 to $200,000, assuming a modest annual growth rate of 3-4%. For rent prices, a more stabilized growth is expected, potentially reaching an average of $700 to $750 per month by 2029, considering historical fluctuations and assuming a 2-3% annual increase.
In summary, Fredericktown has demonstrated resilience in its housing market, with steadily increasing home values despite fluctuations in homeownership rates. The city's ability to maintain a balance between owners and renters, even in the face of changing economic conditions, speaks to its stability and appeal as a residential community. As Fredericktown moves forward, the interplay between interest rates, housing prices, and demographic shifts will continue to shape its real estate landscape.
