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Property Crime Trends in South Coffeyville: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
South Coffeyville, located in Oklahoma, has experienced fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes varied, starting at 17 in 2010 and ending at 12 in 2022, representing a 29.4% decrease. During this same period, the population declined from 960 in 2010 to 852 in 2022, a 11.3% decrease.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a downward trend over time. In 2010, there were 4 burglaries reported, which decreased to just 1 in 2022, representing a 75% reduction. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 4.17 in 2010 to 1.17 in 2022. The city's contribution to state burglary statistics remained relatively low, fluctuating between 0% and 0.02% of the state's total burglaries. This decline in burglaries suggests improved security measures or changing criminal patterns within the community.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown more variability but with a slight downward trend. In 2010, there were 13 reported cases, which decreased to 10 in 2022, a 23.1% reduction. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 people slightly increased from 13.54 in 2010 to 11.74 in 2022, due to the population decrease outpacing the crime reduction. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics remained low but increased slightly from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022. This trend suggests that while overall numbers have decreased, larceny-theft remains a persistent issue relative to the city's size.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been inconsistent over the years. In 2010, there were no reported cases, but by 2022, there was 1 reported case. The motor vehicle theft rate per 1,000 people increased from 0 in 2010 to 1.17 in 2022. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics increased from 0% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022. While the absolute numbers remain low, the increase suggests a need for targeted prevention efforts.
There were no reported cases of arson throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022, indicating that arson is not a significant concern for the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $36,071 in 2013 to $49,124 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased. However, this correlation is not perfectly consistent across all years. Additionally, there seems to be a weak correlation between property crime rates and homeownership percentages, with property crimes slightly increasing as homeownership rates decreased from 82% in 2013 to 73% in 2022.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a slight increase in overall property crimes. Based on the historical data and current trends, we project that by 2029, the total number of property crimes may reach approximately 15-18 incidents annually. This forecast takes into account the city's population decline and the fluctuating nature of property crime rates observed in recent years.
In summary, South Coffeyville has experienced an overall decrease in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, with varying trends across different categories. Burglaries have significantly decreased, while larceny-theft remains the most common property crime. Motor vehicle thefts have slightly increased, and arson remains non-existent. The relationship between rising median incomes and declining crime rates suggests that economic improvements may contribute to reduced criminal activity. However, the projected slight increase in property crimes for the next five years indicates ongoing vigilance and preventive measures will be crucial for maintaining community safety.
