Motor vehicle theft trends have been erratic. From 1 incident in 2016, it increased to 6 in 2020, then decreased to 2 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people peaked at 2.07 in 2020 and settled at 0.65 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.01% in 2016 to 0.05% in 2020, before decreasing to 0.02% in 2022. This fluctuation suggests that motor vehicle theft remains a concern, albeit an inconsistent one.

Arson incidents have been consistently reported as 0 throughout the period from 2016 to 2022, with the city contributing 0% to state arson cases. This absence of arson cases is a positive aspect of the city's safety profile.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $43,873 in 2016 to $54,037 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 12 to 7. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Larceny-theft is expected to stabilize around 4-5 incidents annually, while burglary and motor vehicle theft may fluctuate between 0-2 incidents per year. Arson is predicted to remain at 0 incidents.

In summary, Kellyville has shown an overall improvement in property crime rates, particularly in larceny-theft, despite population growth. The sporadic nature of burglaries and motor vehicle thefts suggests areas for continued vigilance. The consistent absence of arson incidents is a positive indicator of community safety. The inverse correlation between rising median income and declining property crime rates highlights the potential impact of economic factors on crime prevention. These trends paint a picture of a community that is becoming safer over time, with opportunities for further enhancement of public safety measures.