Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Phil Campbell, Alabama: A Study of Decline Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Phil Campbell, located in Alabama, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 33.33%, from 21 to 14 incidents. Simultaneously, the population grew by 14.37%, from 2,505 in 2010 to 2,865 in 2022, indicating a potential inverse relationship between population growth and property crime rates.
Burglary rates in the city have shown significant fluctuations over the years. In 2010, there were no reported burglaries, but by 2011, this number rose to 5 incidents. By 2022, the burglary rate remained at 5 incidents, despite the population increase. This translates to a rate of approximately 1.75 burglaries per 1,000 people in 2022, compared to 2.01 per 1,000 in 2011. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.01% in 2011 to 0.04% in 2022, suggesting a relative increase in the city's contribution to state-wide burglary statistics despite stable local numbers.
Larceny-theft incidents have seen a notable decline over the years. In 2010, there were 20 reported cases, which decreased to 12 in 2011, and further dropped to 7 in 2022. This represents a 65% decrease from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the rate fell from 7.98 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 2.44 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics decreased from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022, indicating an improvement in this area relative to state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively stable. There was 1 incident in 2010, increasing to 2 in 2011, and remaining at 2 in 2022. When considering population growth, the rate per 1,000 people actually decreased slightly from 0.40 in 2010 to 0.70 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased marginally from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2022, suggesting a slight increase in the city's contribution to state statistics in this category.
Arson data for the city is limited, with only one year (2011) reporting 0 incidents. The lack of consistent data makes it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 581 per square mile in 2010 to 664 in 2022, property crimes decreased, suggesting a possible inverse relationship. Additionally, there appears to be a strong positive correlation between median income and property crime reduction. The median income rose significantly from $24,106 in 2016 to $65,139 in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decrease in overall property crimes. Based on the current trends, we might expect to see total property crimes drop to around 10-12 incidents per year by 2029. Burglaries are likely to remain stable or decrease slightly, potentially reaching 3-4 incidents annually. Larceny-theft is predicted to continue its downward trend, possibly reducing to 5-6 incidents per year. Motor vehicle theft is expected to remain low, potentially averaging 1-2 incidents annually.
In summary, Phil Campbell has demonstrated a positive trend in property crime reduction despite population growth. The most significant improvements have been in larceny-theft, while burglary and motor vehicle theft have remained relatively stable when adjusted for population growth. The inverse relationship between rising median income and decreasing property crime rates suggests that economic improvements may be contributing to enhanced public safety. These trends, if they continue, position the city for a potentially safer future with lower property crime rates.
