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Violent Crime Trends in Southside: A Decade of Improvement in a Growing Alabama City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Southside, located in Alabama, has experienced notable changes in its violent crime rates and population over the years. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a peak of 17 incidents in 2016 and a low of 1 incident in 2021. The population grew steadily from 9,191 in 2010 to 10,317 in 2022, representing a 12.25% increase over this period.
Murder rates in the city have been relatively low, with only two recorded incidents over the 13-year period. The first occurred in 2010, representing 0.71% of the state's murders that year, and the second in 2022, accounting for 0.27% of state murders. When adjusted for population, these translate to rates of 0.11 and 0.10 murders per 1,000 residents in 2010 and 2022, respectively. This suggests a slight decrease in the murder rate relative to population growth.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, with no clear long-term trend. The highest number of reported rapes was 7 in 2016, representing 0.63% of the state's total. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 0.75 in 2016 and was at its lowest in 2017 and 2022 with no reported cases. The percentage of state rape cases attributed to the city has varied, reaching a high of 0.63% in 2016 and a low of 0% in several years, including 2022.
Robbery rates in the city have been consistently low, with only one year (2016) reporting any incidents. In 2016, there were 3 robberies, accounting for 0.1% of the state's total. This translates to a rate of 0.32 robberies per 1,000 residents for that year. The absence of robberies in most years suggests this is not a prevalent issue in the community.
Aggravated assault has been the most common violent crime in the city, with numbers fluctuating between 1 and 14 incidents per year. The peak was in 2017 with 14 cases, representing 0.13% of the state's total. The rate per 1,000 residents was highest in 2011 at 1.38 and lowest in 2021 at 0.10. The percentage of state aggravated assaults attributed to the city has generally remained below 0.13%, indicating that the city contributes a small portion to the state's overall aggravated assault figures.
There appears to be a moderate correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 480 per square mile in 2010 to 539 per square mile in 2022, there was a general upward trend in violent crimes, though with significant year-to-year fluctuations. The racial distribution of the city, predominantly white (93% in 2022), has remained relatively stable and does not show a strong correlation with crime trends.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential slight increase in overall violent crimes, primarily driven by aggravated assaults. The model suggests that the city may experience between 5 to 10 violent crimes annually by 2029, with aggravated assaults likely accounting for the majority of these incidents.
In summary, Southside has maintained relatively low violent crime rates compared to state averages, with aggravated assault being the most prevalent issue. The city's growth in population has not led to a proportional increase in violent crimes, suggesting effective law enforcement or community factors contributing to public safety. However, the fluctuating nature of the crime rates indicates the need for continued vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies to maintain and improve upon the current safety levels.
