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Property Crime Trends in Palmyra, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations and Economic Impacts
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Palmyra, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 61 in 2010, peaking at 122 in 2017, and ultimately decreasing to 55 in 2022, representing a 9.84% overall decrease. During this same period, the population grew slightly from 4,393 in 2010 to 4,470 in 2022, a 1.75% increase.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 7 burglaries, which peaked at 13 in 2015, but then decreased to 7 again by 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.59 in 2010 to 1.57 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's percentage of state burglaries increased from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2022, suggesting a potentially faster decrease in burglaries at the state level compared to the city.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, exhibited considerable fluctuation. Starting at 54 incidents in 2010, it reached a high of 114 in 2017 before declining to 41 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 12.29 in 2010 to 9.17 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, moving from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2022, indicating that the city's larceny-theft trends generally mirrored those of the state.
Motor vehicle theft showed an upward trend over the period. From zero reported incidents in 2010, it increased to 7 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0 to 1.57. The city's percentage of state motor vehicle thefts also increased from 0% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2022, suggesting a faster increase in this crime category compared to the state average.
Arson data for the city is largely unavailable, with only one reported incident in 2013, representing 0.13% of state arsons that year. The lack of consistent data makes it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $47,007 in 2013 to $58,331 in 2022, there was a general downward trend in overall property crime, suggesting a possible negative correlation between income and property crime rates. The percentage of owner-occupied housing remained relatively stable around 70% throughout the period, which may have contributed to the overall stability in property crime rates.
Racial demographics show a slight decrease in the white population from 97% in 2013 to 87% in 2022, with a corresponding increase in diversity. This demographic shift coincides with the overall decrease in property crimes, though a direct causal relationship cannot be established without further analysis.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the recent downward trend in overall property crimes. Based on the data, we might expect to see a further reduction in larceny-theft incidents, while motor vehicle thefts may continue to increase slightly. Burglary rates are likely to remain relatively stable or decrease marginally.
In summary, Palmyra has experienced a notable decrease in overall property crime rates from 2010 to 2022, despite a slight increase in population. The most significant reductions were seen in burglary and larceny-theft, while motor vehicle theft showed an upward trend. These changes occurred against a backdrop of increasing median income and growing racial diversity. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining vigilance in crime prevention strategies, particularly for motor vehicle theft, will be crucial in sustaining and improving upon these positive trends in property crime rates.
